January Payrolls +517,000
January payrolls boomed at +517,000 You can click the graphic to get the details from BLS: I was quite taken aback by how strong the January Payrolls reading was. While…
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February 3, 2023
Are we on plan or what?
Inflation signals and economy fading/decelerating as expected That which was built of inflation will deconstruct with inflation's fade. That's the rough plan, anyway. It's important to remember that short-term phases…
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January 18, 2023
December Payrolls report: +223,000
December payrolls increased by 223,000 You can click this graphic for the full BLS report... You can click this fellow doing his job to see the MSM's take on it...…
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January 6, 2023
December ISM Manufacturing RoB continues to decelerate
The December ISM Manufacturing Survey is per our 2023 plans The December ISM report is bad, folks. And it's on track to our favored view for this year as the…
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January 4, 2023
Inputs from the Philly Fed surveys for December
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see…
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December 22, 2022
November CPI report: We’re on plan
As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate,…
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December 13, 2022
November Payrolls +263k
In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It's a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls…
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December 2, 2022
David Rosenberg on Deflation
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: "Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation…
November 24, 2022
Remember those supply chain issues?
Post-pandemic supply chain disruptions are becoming a thing of the past Check out the state of one of the drivers that exacerbated the inflation created by the Federal Reserve. As…
October 26, 2022
“Post-bubble contraction”
"Post-bubble contraction" (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience.…
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October 14, 2022
ISM continues to decelerate
The September ISM shows manufacturing continuing to weaken Of course, this is a forward looking economic indicator, so why would our friends at the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve take it or…
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October 12, 2022
Hoye’s Post-Bubble Contraction
Below is a short excerpt from NFTRH 726 on the post-bubble contraction, as coined by Bob Hoye. My critique of Bob's timing does not compare to my admiration of his…
October 11, 2022
August Payrolls +315,000
Payrolls still frisky but no big surprise Not too hot, not too cold. The Good Ship Lollipop sails on with its jobs machine still cranking. You can click the graphic…
September 2, 2022
July Payrolls +528,000
BLS reports job gains of 528,000 in July Click headline, get full BLS report. This ought to keep Hazel good and busy as Americans lap up Professional & Business services,…
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August 5, 2022
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