July Payrolls +528,000

BLS reports job gains of 528,000 in July

Click headline, get full BLS report.

july payrolls from bls

This ought to keep Hazel good and busy as Americans lap up Professional & Business services, Education & Health services, Leisure & Hospitality services and Government services.

bls payrolls data

Why it’s a reflection of the temporary ‘Goldilocks’ theme we’ve been working to. If you recall the massive yield curve flattener from 2013 to 2019 you may also recall the most extended phase of Goldilocks in recent history. This one should be way shorter in duration since the curve has already flattened well into inversion.

Meanwhile, the Good Ship Lollipop continues to sail on with its bloated services sectors doing the heavy lifting. As we noted in NFTRH 715 a couple weeks ago the Philly Fed’s manufacturing survey is rolling over.

Who needs manufacturing, anyway? Well, a healthy economy needs it.

It’s not just Philly. ISM reported similar deceleration on a national level for manufacturing, while ISM Services… ha ha ha, expanded just fine. Take a look at the relevant charts by clicking the PMI graphic below. Here is manufacturing seeing pricing roll over as the Fed continues to fight the cost-push inflation that no longer is.

ism prices paidGet the full view of manufacturing deceleration here…


So sail on Good Ship Lollipop. A nice, deep summer Goldilocks tale is being played out. How pleasant.

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