Tariff effects always were going to be delayed… stagflation or deflation?
If the thesis of this well thought out analytical string is correct, no tariff effects will have washed up on our shores until May 10th (+/-). They are here.
Before looking closer at the details projected in the X post, let’s see what massive US discount retailer Walmart has to say at earnings time.
“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb,” he said. “It’s more than any supplier can absorb. And so I’m concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices. You’ll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June.”
Walmart implies that it’s going to be rising prices and not much else. Of course, they are a consumer business, not an economics think tank.
But there will be much else. Either in the form of an increasingly stagflationary economy or an eventual back breaker due to rising prices (inflationary effects) and associated Treasury bond yields. That second thing would be a deflationary resolution.
As to the X post, its premise seems to imply to me that the author sees a hard lurch toward contraction, sort of a grinding halt like we saw during the man-made economic shutdown. Today, the tariff war is also man made, but its effects are, at least to me, up in the air. Which comes first, the stagflationary horse or the deflationary cart?
My hunch? Increasing stagflation leading to a back breaker and eventual deflation scare.
A pretty important question to answer correctly. So we have to keep tabs on the internal market indicators that have guided to this point. Too many to list, but among them are the Silver/Gold ratio and the state of copper.
For “best of breed” top-down macro analysis and market strategy covering Precious Metals, Commodities, Stocks and much more, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes a comprehensive weekly market report, detailed NFTRH+ updates and chart/trade setup ideas, and Daily Market Notes. Receive actionable (free) public content at NFTRH.com and subscribe to our free Substack. Follow via X@NFTRHgt and BlueSky @nftrh.bsky.social, and subscribe to our YouTube Video Channel.
