REAL “real” GDP paints the real picture
Not much is real in America anymore. Preservationists, Patriots and Historians want to bring reality back. I for one am very much looking forward to watching Ken Burns’ The American Revolution. But with a Reality TV president and hyper-(TV) Real administration around him, we continue further off the path that we strayed from many decades ago, regardless of political party, but very much regarding the Federal Reserve system.
The artifice of the modern U.S. economy (basically the stock market and the biggest Tech, along with wacky cooked up ideas like 50 year mortgages and Trump accounts * that do little more than gerrymander the debt to outward appearances) is on full display. You wonder why the stock market is doing this in relation to the real, sound “anchor” asset?
It is because debt is the fuel. In other words, “financial obligations” are the fuel. You either pay up or you attempt to inflate it away.
Here is the booming GDP!
Here is the booming “real”, inflation adjusted GDP! People are fighting yesterday’s battle as inflation fades. Let us not talk about tomorrow’s battle,** which may be just around the corner.
Here is our massive Public Debt of $36T.
And here is our REAL “real” GDP. Basically, if you turn this graph over you will see that since 1980, the beginning of the Regan “trickle down” revolution, REAL (debt adjusted GDP) has trended down. In other words, the long-term economy has depended on the ability to create and leverage debt. It’s unreal, man.
If you believe a system of debt creation in service to prosperity is sustainable (and it has been for decades), then you are in my opinion a bubble head living in the last macro phase, pre-2022:
If you believe that the bond market rebellion of 2022 has changed the picture, you will seek not to be a robotic thinker as the masses were trained to be from 1980 to 2022.
* Does this guy really need to put his name on everything? Soon we’re going to be known by distant aliens as Planet Trump, due for galactic quarantine at best, elimination at worst.
** Well, I am already talking about how to prepare/invest for it (here, here and here).
For “best of breed” top-down macro analysis and market strategy covering Precious Metals, Commodities, Stocks and much more, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes a comprehensive weekly market report, detailed NFTRH+ updates and chart/trade setup ideas, and Daily Market Notes. Receive actionable (free) public content at NFTRH.com and subscribe to our free Substack. Follow via X @NFTRHgt and BlueSky @nftrh.bsky.social, and subscribe to our YouTube Channel. Finally, watch for ANS coming soon and check out Hammer’s trade (long and/or short) setups.
