NFTRH+; relief bounce

Today could be the start of a contrary relief bounce in a wide range of markets, including precious metals. I had thought that FOMC might bring something like that as a play contrary to the existing downtrends (and over bearish sentiment that goes with them).

A few examples:

  • ES (SPX futures) is bouncing right from the June low, as is NQ (NDX futures).
  • Gold is bouncing after its breakdown from key support. Now that former support is resistance at 1675.
  • Silver is still better relative to gold as it holds long-term support at 18.25.
  • NatGas actually looks like a buy to me after dive bombing to test the uptrending SMA 200.
  • Copper is not at all bullish technically, but could have a bounce in it as well.
  • Even Bitcoin is on a good bounce from its shabby looking support area.

There are more examples as global market also try to bounce.

Importantly, the US dollar is in upside blow off mode. Today it is cooling its jets a bit. USD is what I view as a counter-party to global asset markets, an ‘anti’ market to them. We can watch USD and the Gold/Silver ratio for signals as well, going forward. The GSR rebounded from the uptrending SMA 200 but is also logically taking a pullback today.

Nothing goes straight down and bear market rallies can be strong. But none of the stuff mentioned above is anywhere near breaking the bear and likely still won’t be whenever this bounce ends (if it even gets going as the futures indicate). Depending on what I see today I may try trading it a bit. But the trend, even if it is down, is your friend.


This Post Has One Comment

  1. Barden

    Well perceived, thank you.
    But for those outside the USD zone (in this case EUR) , the bounces you describe are only of any use if DXY does not drop for the duration of the speculation.

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