A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks

HUI bottomed vs. SPX in December Here is the weekly chart we’ve used over the last 1.5 years to gauge the downside in gold stocks (HUI) vs. the S&P 500. I did not originally plan the A-B-C corrective scenario but inserted point B upon the failure last June and we (NFTRH) began scouting a bottom at ‘C’ in Q4 2021. It’s a ratio, but it … Continue reading A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks

Precious metals ‘vs. SPY’

Gold, silver and the miners in relation to SPY/SPX We all know that gold and its fellows have bottomed (minor or major)* vs. broad stock markets, and below is a daily chart pictorial view showing the impulsive bursts upward off the lows (relative to SPY) by gold, silver and the miners. The caveat is the shirtless man on the Ukraine border, associated media ‘war drums’ … Continue reading Precious metals ‘vs. SPY’

NFTRH+; if you would short…

The title of the update references ‘if’ you would short, because even if the market is going bearish, cash is position. Working against the short/bearish view is contrary bullish sentiment (over-bearish), the fact that an alarming news event is driving some of it and the simple fact that historically at least (last 3 instances), stocks don’t top into real bear markets until many months after … Continue reading NFTRH+; if you would short…


The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!

SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

The picture brightens, as if on cue…

Ref. yesterday’s post with the oh so pensive trader with a southward pointing chart over his shoulder. Today it is a brighter picture as two calm gentlemen go about their business as usual. Again, you can click the graphic if you want to see CNBC’s breakdown of this morning’s events. I see Cramer is on the right side of the contrarian setup this morning, unless … Continue reading The picture brightens, as if on cue…