Protected: NFTRH+; 2 more gaps
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Tag: SPX
Protected: NFTRH+; final gap filled
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. Continue reading Protected: NFTRH+; final gap filled
SPX; a bad chart
SPX and its US index fellows are in rough shape. That’s a Captain Obvious statement, but we’ve been tracking the degrading situation by weekly charts like the one at the end of the post for several weeks now. Last week the Powell jawbone followed the Brainard and Bullard jawbones, and the whole lot of them came later than they should have considering that the 3 … Continue reading SPX; a bad chart
A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks
HUI bottomed vs. SPX in December Here is the weekly chart we’ve used over the last 1.5 years to gauge the downside in gold stocks (HUI) vs. the S&P 500. I did not originally plan the A-B-C corrective scenario but inserted point B upon the failure last June and we (NFTRH) began scouting a bottom at ‘C’ in Q4 2021. It’s a ratio, but it … Continue reading A bottom in gold stocks vs. broad stocks
Precious metals ‘vs. SPY’
Gold, silver and the miners in relation to SPY/SPX We all know that gold and its fellows have bottomed (minor or major)* vs. broad stock markets, and below is a daily chart pictorial view showing the impulsive bursts upward off the lows (relative to SPY) by gold, silver and the miners. The caveat is the shirtless man on the Ukraine border, associated media ‘war drums’ … Continue reading Precious metals ‘vs. SPY’
NFTRH+; if you would short…
The title of the update references ‘if’ you would short, because even if the market is going bearish, cash is position. Working against the short/bearish view is contrary bullish sentiment (over-bearish), the fact that an alarming news event is driving some of it and the simple fact that historically at least (last 3 instances), stocks don’t top into real bear markets until many months after … Continue reading NFTRH+; if you would short…
NFTRH+; Rally/bounce targets
As a thought exploration evolving from the VIX pullback… If the VIX were to drop to an extreme test of its potential new uptrend, we’d be looking for the 19 area and/or a higher low to the last January low. Markets, when they get a bit in their mouth, often seem to push the limits in order to put the herds back to sleep (or … Continue reading NFTRH+; Rally/bounce targets
Surprise!
The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!
SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
Equal weight SPX negative divergence
The Equal weight S&P 500 has been negatively diverging headline SPX for months Here is Exhibit A about why you can see something negative but you need to temper how you present (in my case) or react to it (in both our cases). Equal weight SPX has been diverging since March while the headline SPX motored from the 4200 area to the 4800 area. Yes, … Continue reading Equal weight SPX negative divergence
The picture brightens, as if on cue…
Ref. yesterday’s post with the oh so pensive trader with a southward pointing chart over his shoulder. Today it is a brighter picture as two calm gentlemen go about their business as usual. Again, you can click the graphic if you want to see CNBC’s breakdown of this morning’s events. I see Cramer is on the right side of the contrarian setup this morning, unless … Continue reading The picture brightens, as if on cue…
NFTRH+; in-day market leadership update
Just a moderate priority update, with picture of the US market leadership chain. SOX/NDX, NDX/SPX and SOX/SPX are all firm today and maintaining the ‘intact’ status noted in NFTRH 686 and previous. Continue reading NFTRH+; in-day market leadership update
Two of four gaps filled
NDX and SOX filler their upper gaps Ref. last Thursday’s… Not in love with these gaps While SPX and DJIA are still working on theirs, the market leader (Tech) and its leader (Semi) have filled their upper gaps. There are still lower gaps to be dealt with some day, but until this is a real and hysterical Fed-fear event that may come later. In order … Continue reading Two of four gaps filled