[edit] And as if on cue, there goes Nvidia after hours, with its ‘in the bag’ results. Let’s see if this prompts Wayne, Garth and party season and a final pump in AI, or gets devoured by the bear. Makes no never diff to me right now, really.
I have thoughts on the stock market, alright. I have had thoughts that it is a bloated pig in need of crash to reality. Thoughts that “they” will gun it to the measured target after a suitable pullback to reset sentiment far enough.
But one thing I don’t have to think about is the VIX divergence that is still in play. First a look at SPX (daily) continuing to dwell below the intersection of the 50 day average and short-term lateral support. Big picture trending up, short-term picture still in correction.
As noted recently, the VIX divergence to the market’s recent highs is not a good timer. But it is a divergence and at some point it should play out bearish, as it often has in the past.
While I have added a few items in the resources sectors, and am hedged on gold stocks, my main holdings in the broad market lean defensive with healthcare. And there is the SPXS position hedging as well.
I have talked a lot about the potential of a year-end party and have inserted the Wayne & Garth “party on!” pic enough times lately. But let’s also note that corrections and bear markets do happen, and I for one hope one is happening either now or after Wayne & Garth party season.
Cash and short-term Treasury equivalents are a good bet until the market shows its short-term cards.
