Email from subscriber DM: “Gary – do you mind charting out vix as if it was a stock in a future post or weekly?” Why no sir, not at all (after I spaced out on including it in NFTRH 718 despite a note right in front of me on my desk). If VIX were a stock… …it would be bearish and while maybe a bargain … Continue reading If the VIX were a stock
As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…
VIX spike is getting excessive Regardless whether this is the start of a bear market (and the changing moving average trends on the VIX indicate it could well be), the spike is getting overdone. I think that if you are shorting this market now because a group of economic eggheads are meeting to conspire about how to stuff the inflation it let out of the … Continue reading Volatility at risk
VIX is filling a gap On Monday I sold the volatility spike. Hedge though it was I did not want to ride the spike in angst back down again: Bye bye volatility While I don’t think I am going to buy it back again, volatility has pulled back to a level that an active bear might consider buying. I plan to use shorts in other … Continue reading Buy buy volatility?
Volatility expressed, VIXY sold I am not a great bear and I am not necessarily bearish the market. What is going on now is the logical extension of what we anticipated months ago, a summer cool down in inflation expectations. Lately, it has come complete with Fed heads jawboning about inflation with Yellen doing the same in the side car. Long story short, I am … Continue reading Bye Bye Volatility
After VIX broke down to fill the 2020 fear gap we noted two new support areas, and the first of those at 15 (actually 15.38) has been hit today. From a contrarian market risk perspective, this is a concern. Not an alarm bell, not the indicated end of the world, but a concern. I may take some more profits because, why not? I earned them … Continue reading NFTRH+; This indicator has hit the next target [w/ edit]
And chances are one of the bedfellows is going roll out of bed. Last week we noted the coming gap fill in the VIX to close out the terror of Q1 2020. Here is the chart showing that mission accomplished. The 3 min. chart shows the April Fools dive bomb to fill the gap and today both VIX (red) and SPX (green) rising in tandem. … Continue reading VIX & SPX: Strange In-day Bedfellows
VIX is breaking down Well, it looks like the Cramer indicator nailed it back on March 5th. The indicator jumped up and down on TeeVee advising the public herds about the 5 stages of grief. The market immediately rebounded but then we did have more volatility. Now? Not so much. NFTRH 648’s Sentiment segment had this to say regarding the following weekly chart. “As the … Continue reading Ugh… Check Out the VIX
VIX just completed its 4th agonizing (if you are actively bearish) spike and drop since the March, 2020 crash These squalls of angst that erupt out of nowhere serve to reset wickedly over-bullish market sentiment in little micro bursts of angst. The market was hideously over-bullish as we projected some corrective disturbance in line with long-term yields that were due for a cool down. Then … Continue reading VIX’s Latest Tower of Agony
The stock market’s sentiment profile is not at all good In NFTRH we use these charts along with Sentimentrader (primarily, e.g. graphic above) and Yardeni to routinely track the sentiment profile of the stock market. For much of 2020, we had to remain bullish (technicals and trends) while having to make peace with an over-bullish sentiment risk profile. It’s a mental exercise, to say the … Continue reading A Look at Sentiment Risk
It’s counter-intuitive and can be difficult to abide by when the bullets are flying on any given day, but if you’ll recall back in 2019 the little micro sentiment adjustments – mostly courtesy of Trump’s trade war bombs lobbed at China – actually sustained an over-bullish market with a series of little pullbacks on the inflammatory news du jour. They often lasted a day or … Continue reading The Kind of Thing That Sustains the Bull
First, the VIX, which has gotten clobbered on whatever is making the markets feel good today. I added some VIXY back yesterday as a vol. hedge, but obviously did so too soon. Show biz. I am holding it pending the VIX filling its SMA 50 after a gap fill. SPX is showing something today. Per #627 we had anticipated a bounce to at least the … Continue reading NFTRH+; Updating Some Key Markets
Friday felt strange, as I tried to point out in NFTRH 623. Normally, a news-driven market holds an efficacy of a day or so. I hate to give in to news-driven markets and normally I’d have been stubbornly bullish in the face of negative news. But something felt heavy on Friday. Well, it turns out that it indeed appears to have been back to business … Continue reading NFTRH; Market View One Trading Day Later
I went from sad (taking my profits too soon) to glad that I took profits in volatility vehicle VIXY as the VIX reversed and went negative today. It remains to be seen what’s next for volatility in the markets. We’ve been tracking the divergence in the VIX for the last several weeks in NFTRH’s Sentiment segment. First VIX had simply not been dropping as much … Continue reading Market Volatility
