Part 1, on plan…

As the stock market takes the expected rally… Part 1, per Friday’s article, was for terror stricken, over-bearish investors to spring a sentiment relief bounce; likely a strong one. The ‘Smart/Dumb’ money spread (discussed in NFTRH 691) below being just one of many over-bearish spike indicators. This graph is two things, extremely over-bearish and thus, contrary bullish, and a picture of building pressure against the … Continue reading Part 1, on plan…

NFTRH+; This indicator has hit the next target [w/ edit]

After VIX broke down to fill the 2020 fear gap we noted two new support areas, and the first of those at 15 (actually 15.38) has been hit today. From a contrarian market risk perspective, this is a concern. Not an alarm bell, not the indicated end of the world, but a concern. I may take some more profits because, why not? I earned them … Continue reading NFTRH+; This indicator has hit the next target [w/ edit]


VIX’s Latest Tower of Agony

VIX just completed its 4th agonizing (if you are actively bearish) spike and drop since the March, 2020 crash These squalls of angst that erupt out of nowhere serve to reset wickedly over-bullish market sentiment in little micro bursts of angst. The market was hideously over-bullish as we projected some corrective disturbance in line with long-term yields that were due for a cool down. Then … Continue reading VIX’s Latest Tower of Agony

A Look at Sentiment Risk

The stock market’s sentiment profile is not at all good In NFTRH we use these charts along with Sentimentrader (primarily, e.g. graphic above) and Yardeni to routinely track the sentiment profile of the stock market. For much of 2020, we had to remain bullish (technicals and trends) while having to make peace with an over-bullish sentiment risk profile. It’s a mental exercise, to say the … Continue reading A Look at Sentiment Risk


The Kind of Thing That Sustains the Bull

It’s counter-intuitive and can be difficult to abide by when the bullets are flying on any given day, but if you’ll recall back in 2019 the little micro sentiment adjustments – mostly courtesy of Trump’s trade war bombs lobbed at China – actually sustained an over-bullish market with a series of little pullbacks on the inflammatory news du jour. They often lasted a day or … Continue reading The Kind of Thing That Sustains the Bull

NFTRH; Market View One Trading Day Later

Friday felt strange, as I tried to point out in NFTRH 623. Normally, a news-driven market holds an efficacy of a day or so. I hate to give in to news-driven markets and normally I’d have been stubbornly bullish in the face of negative news. But something felt heavy on Friday. Well, it turns out that it indeed appears to have been back to business … Continue reading NFTRH; Market View One Trading Day Later