Slow Boiling Bull Frogs
The following is part of the Market Sentiment segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 498. I've given it a funny name that would be…
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May 6, 2018
S&P 500 Progressing Nicely
Yup, I said I am short Semis and Tech, but I am much longer the market. Remember, I am not one of you fancy traders; I am a portfolio twittler.…
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February 14, 2018
Serving Up One Micro Blip, Gold Pompoms Dealt With (correction added)
Well, to answer the closing thought in this morning's post... So anyway, we’ve got a pretty good jump in the VIX and we will soon see if it is the…
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January 17, 2018
Volatility: Was Yesterday Another Micro Blip?
We have had an ongoing theme in NFTRH tracking how the market periodically gets the jitters to just enough of a degree as to reset sentiment on the micro-term in…
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January 17, 2018
Volatility Spike: Real or Memorex (again)?
So, is this just another spike that will refresh the bull or is it the start of the real thing? Here's the weekly view. It does not look like the…
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November 15, 2017
Risk On/Risk Off? The Equity Put/Call Ratio
In NFTRH 461 last weekend we reviewed plenty of reasons why the market would probably put on a bounce in the micro-term. Among the reasons was this little treat from…
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August 23, 2017
VIX Gap Filled
Well, it's something for the bulls anyway. The gap down on whatever was pleasuring the market in mid-late April has now been closed and is out of the way. I…
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May 17, 2017
Stock Market Sentiment, Re-Fueled Along the Way
It's a big picture view with a story to tell. People are micro-managing the VIX, talking about how it either doesn't work anymore, if it ever did, or is forecasting…
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April 28, 2017
VIX Agrees With the ‘by March/April’ Rally Lifespan Theme
On Monday we noted that while the market was getting skittish and the VIX was up 17%, the VIX had done nothing, as far as indicating a bearish phase was…
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February 3, 2017
Here is What to Watch on the VIX
I think it's an over valued, over hyped market running on 'hope' of a different kind than over the last 8 years. I'll save the long list of things that…
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January 30, 2017
Now is Not the Time to be Getting the Yips
The time to be getting afraid was when the market ramped and sentiment was pinging to over bullish after the Brexit sentiment reset to over bearish had sprung the rally. …
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November 2, 2016
NFTRH; US Stock Market Technical Situation
Yesterday’s hard reversal of Tuesday’s bullish move was an unpleasant development for the bulls but this morning, plucky as ever, they are back at it trying to bull the market again (SPX +13.50, NDX +27.50, Dow +87).
Recall that we were using the EMA 20s (orange dotted line on SPX and blue lines on NDX and Dow) as a key for the short-term. On Tuesday SPX and Dow popped above the EMA 20 but the NDX stopped right at it. NDX is a leader.
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May 12, 2016
Risk is Low You Say?
I am seeing more and more analysis reporting things like 'my proprietary indicators have gone positive' or 'market risk has now cleared according to my indicators' and so on and…
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March 11, 2016
US Market: Some Ugly Charts and One Fairly Attractive One for Your Viewing Pleasure
Being a visual learner (as opposed to a facts and figures learner) I always like to look at the market's pictures in order to tune out idiotic and/or emotional headlines.…
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September 22, 2015