S&P 500 Progressing Nicely

Yup, I said I am short Semis and Tech, but I am much longer the market. Remember, I am not one of you fancy traders; I am a portfolio twittler. Balance and macro perspective are the big things (hence, income paying cash and Treasury bonds vs. ‘Inflation Trade’ items and a plan to build short positions against longs on the near-term.

Then the trick is to decide on the favored scenario (another leg down in stocks to fill the gap in the 2400s) vs. the less favored scenario (move along, retails bulls flushed and now nothing to see here but bullish blue sky). I think a fill of the lower gap could be bullish for 2nd half 2018. But let’s not guess.

This rally may be doing a good job of stimulating FOMO in the new traders who got flushed last week and as they buy back in, the bounce is maturing as SPX nears our favored rebound area at the 50 day moving average.

spx

Volatility has been sent back to the hell it came from.

vix

And the waters appear safe again. If you don’t mind a few Great Whites.

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