The Magic Behind Consumer Discretionary’s ‘Intact’ State

Look at the relatively sad states of the majority of XLY’s top holdings. Propping the ETF up? Why, none other than market darling AMZN as the momo money flies right back into the names it puked in early February. I bought GOOGL at the lows for just that reason, but sold it a few days ago. Traders, algorithms, casino patrons, mom & pop and managers … Continue reading The Magic Behind Consumer Discretionary’s ‘Intact’ State

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NFTRH+; A Semi Equipment Short Setup

As noted in the Trade Log yesterday, I shorted BRKS. This is a lesser quality Semi Equipment company as compared to LRCX, which I am also still short. I had shorted this one previously during the early February market decline. The daily chart shows the trend line above which would be a ‘stop loss’ (for me, since I am already positioned) and also the preferred … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Semi Equipment Short Setup

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NFTRH+; An Interesting Biotech Setup

First, a nice summary from Motley Fool for background. DVAX is the last highlight of three. A more recent piece on the company is here. My observation is that these consolidations after a big ‘FDA approval’ surge can take a long time (ref. my hold of medical robotics company TRXC). But I do like what I read of the company, still very speculative though it … Continue reading NFTRH+; An Interesting Biotech Setup

Treasury Yields: A Stroll Through Recent History

So how long ago did we begin seriously entertaining higher long-term Treasury yields? Well, per these posts, it was before Halloween that we noted the daily chart breakouts and began assigning macro meaning to the situation. I think the 3 Amigos took to their horses shortly thereafter. Treasury Yields: Here We Go, Folks (10.25.17) The Big Macro Play Ahead (10.27.17) The reason I post this … Continue reading Treasury Yields: A Stroll Through Recent History

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NFTRH; In-Day Snapshots (daily charts)

Cyclical indicator PALL/Gold has bounced to and at least temporarily halted at the SMA 50. However, the weekly chart reviewed previously has recovered the EMA 20. If this indicator resumes upward it would be a positive macro market and economic signal. We noted during the correction that it had taken a hard hit but was not broken. Risk ‘on’ indicator HYG has bounced to the … Continue reading NFTRH; In-Day Snapshots (daily charts)

Bonds and Related Market Indicators

The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many … Continue reading Bonds and Related Market Indicators

Inflation is Not the Best Backdrop for a Gold Sector ‘Buy’

Posted over at Gold-Eagle… Inflation is Not the Best Backdrop for a Gold Sector ‘Buy’ “I realize that gold’s link with inflation is rooted in the mass psyche and it is true that gold benefits from inflation over the very long-term. But the gold sector, the miners of this long-term inflation, currency and monetary disaster hedge do not prosper fundamentally during risk ‘on’, pro-cyclical inflationary … Continue reading Inflation is Not the Best Backdrop for a Gold Sector ‘Buy’

NFTRH 488 Out Now

A post-op cat with a cone on his head and many after-care needs, a head/chest cold that has got to be something more than that (yes, I am still whining about it) and an internet connection and its backup that both failed all conspired to delay a bit but not deter NFTRH 488, which was sent to subscribers earlier this afternoon. Themes include what we … Continue reading NFTRH 488 Out Now