I think it’s an over valued, over hyped market running on ‘hope’ of a different kind than over the last 8 years. I’ll save the long list of things that could go wrong and dash that hope for another post. For now, the market is bullish. For it to remain bullish it might want to see the VIX capped below the SMA 200.
In a market I don’t trust (due to valuation on the micro and its 8 year dependence on Fed policy on the macro) under a president I don’t like, my confidence is certainly limited. But there is no reason to think the market is going bearish unless the VIX, up 17%+ today, actually does something. So far, it has not.
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