indicators

Bye Bye Volatility

Volatility expressed, VIXY sold

I am not a great bear and I am not necessarily bearish the market. What is going on now is the logical extension of what we anticipated months ago, a summer cool down in inflation expectations. Lately, it has come complete with Fed heads jawboning about inflation with Yellen doing the same in the side car.

Long story short, I am taking my 14% in VIXY and saying thank you for the luck of such good timing.

From the Trade Log on Friday:

  • Added an inefficient way to guess about timing of market volatility, VIXY. Trades like this usually do not work out, but there it is anyway. If all goes well – or poorly – it’s a short-term position.

Meanwhile, here is the daily chart of the VIX. As you can see it is on one of its spikes as the herds scatter, but it has not thus far done anything it has not done before all along the downtrend.

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