Small bear pattern on the S&P 500 daily chart
With the disclaimer that I have a short position against SPY, let’s note the technical situation on the S&P 500. First let’s note that the upside target was not quite reached, but it came close enough for government work. Also, as we noted in NFTRH a couple weeks ago, the further we got, time-wise, from the pattern that established the target, the less meaningful it had become, in my opinion.
However, while I have a bearish view for the stock market in 2025, the little pattern highlighted here only measures to what would theoretically be a healthy test of the uptrending 200 day moving average. Of course that could change for the worse, but I am going to take things in chunks, evaluating probabilities from several angles along the way, rather than trying to make predictions.
SPX is slipping below the pattern’s neckline today. Now we’ll see if 2:00 Charlie flies in to try to remedy the situation later today. For now, it’s a poke below the neckline and a bearish sign with the right shoulder forming on increasing volume.
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