Summary
Precious Metals (bull market): Correction still in effect, but anticipated bounce is on. GDX/HUI have higher to go before they can attempt to disqualify the A-B-C correction scenario, as illustrated in an NFTRH+ update on March 31st. Still anticipating an effect on mining bottom lines from the spike in oil prices, even if temporary. Gold, silver and miners/royalty/exploration hung tough on Friday as markets shook out cling-ons on war fears. A positive sign, short-term. Bigger picture, it is time to expand out into the wider commodity realm with future inflation to come.
US Stock Market (bull market): Correction still in effect. Stock market also hung tough and did not take the bait after the Trump speech. I went from sad to glad that I had eliminated a portion of my hedging. If bounce continues, we’d look for a potential A-B-C pattern here as well. Economically, the US is dragged by war and tariffs. But the economy remains functional for now, with the BBB’s stimulus and the 3 Amigos (Trump, Bessent & Warsh) at the ready to stimulate further. A deeper market correction would theoretically act as one of the triggers for the Amigos.
Global Stocks (bull market): Still a mixed bag of relatively strong and relatively weak global markets. Leaders like EM are still in orderly corrections. Europe appears to have already tested a valid downside support objective and its PMI readings are growing. India has dive bombed, and I want to look into the reasons why (a quick look indicates inflation rate & interest rates high relative to other markets). On the face of it, India begs a bit of global diversification exposure, as do other global markets, when looking out to the second half of 2026. Global growth is moderate to improving after a period of stimulus.
L/T US Treasury Bonds (bear market): War and associated price spikes continue to stoke inflation fears. We’ll continue not to call that inflation. It is rising prices, and there is little the Fed can do about these kinds of prices rises because they didn’t create them in the first place, as they usually do with their inflationary operations born of bond market manipulation. More likely, higher rates may start to eat at the economy and the Fed will flip dovish again in the coming months. A short period of economic weakness could lift bonds in the interim within their long-term bear market.
Commodities/Resources (bull market): Most will follow gold/precious metals as usual. Correction still in effect (outside of war-driven commodities like oil, fertilizer and knock-on effects). The post-corrective play often goes like this: Gold > Gold Stocks/Silver > Commodities (in non-linear fashion)/Stocks. In the expected H2, 2026 market recovery, commodity-related stocks should play a prime role. We are no longer narrowly focused on the precious metals.
US Dollar (cyclical bear market, L/T still a bull market): De-dollarizers have been quieted as Uncle Buck is on a 2 month rally while the Gold/Silver ratio is biased to the upside. This is a still a short-term warning to many markets, including that the precious metals could still see some hard volatility. Later, the 3 Amigos are expected to promote what may seem like a nice bailout at first, but turn virulent in 2027 for the worst inflation problem yet, with the USD vulnerable at that time.
Comment: Currently viewing the situation much like the 2025 correction and to a more moderate extent, Q1, 2020. What we need to do is not be thinking like the majority of investors, i.e. the herd. Hence protection and risk management first, capitalize second. That second thing is the more fun thing. Indications are that H2, 2026 will be bullish once the current correction runs its course.
US Stock Market
I wish I could say the logical corrective path the market has taken thus far will continue to a nice, neat smash of the primary downside target area at 6100 to 6175. But the in-day reversal to the upside on Friday gives decent odds that SPX may pop to the down-turning 50 day average (blue), put in a ‘B’ high, and then decline to a ‘C’ low at our target. As a side note, we should also realize that a drop to the 6100s could also briefly open the gates of hell temporarily, for a final intense swoosh down (AKA a ‘V’ bottom & reversal), ala Q1, 2020. That would be the margin man cleaning up the remaining hangers-on who are stuck ‘long’.
Alternate plans would be that the market bounces and resumes its bull promptly, or dive bombs the targets promptly. In order of perceived probability:
- Bounce to a ‘B’ high, fail and drop to the pattern top target range (w/ “swoosh”/V-bottom vulnerability).
- Continue downward promptly to target.
- Rally from here and don’t look back.
- This correction is the start of a bear market.
Strategy – Bull Stocks
By “bull stocks”, I simply mean non-precious metals, non-commodity stocks. Mostly US companies, but including global as well. Some day one can fantasize that these may be labeled “bear stocks”, but that day is not on the horizon yet, outside of sometimes violent corrections.
As you know, I am partially hedged (against SPX, NDX & Euro). I’m not sure I’ll hold the hedges if the market continues to hold up next week and look for a ‘B’ high. If I let them go I’ll have to be very nimble in bringing them back (along with, potentially, gold stock hedges as well).
I have a lot of stock positions that back the view of an eventual bull phase into the Q4 election. I am depending on the 3 Amigos, Trump, Bessent and Warsh to rig policy thusly. First they will need an overt reason, and that may yet come in the form of further economic weakening under pressure of war, energy costs and interest rates.
I hold Semiconductor and/or AI-related items like ASML, MRVL, ALAB, NVDA and ANET not because they are a value. They are the opposite of that. They are held because they are best of breed, and if the view of a bull run in H2, 2026 is a good one, these are the type stocks the herds will stampede back into (along with items like MSFT, AAPL, etc. which I also hold). On the global theme, Taiwan-based analog Semi maker HIMX was added as it dive-bombed on Monday. It and ASML represent global “bull stock” holdings and I expect global weighting to be increased in 2026.
As you know, I have positions in Software beat-downs as well. These are items that got caught up in AI-mageddon, but not necessarily deservedly so. DDOG, NOW, PATH and DOCU are currently held.
The diversity theme has seen me hold medical device maker MDT from a good profit to a paper loss. After profits were taken in Biopharma stocks GILD and REGN, the latter along with BMRN have been added back. No hurry to add back GILD now, given its big run. A further decline to support at 125 may change that view.
Other riff-raff for the sake of diversity include a bank (USB), an Energy utility (ES) and the Bitcoin tracker/dividend payer BTCI.
Strategy – Commodity Related
The chart of the GDX/COPX ratio (ref. Indicator Charts) illustrates why the view is shifting away from gold stock-centric to a wider, and in my opinion easier, strategic view. Of course, this could simply be a consolidation prior to new upside for gold miners vs. copper miners (see longer-term chart in the Precious Metals segment). But on the balance of NFTRH analysis, the macro is shifting toward inflationary (pending the interim disinflation, still in effect).
In support of that view, copper miners FCX, ERO and SCCO have been added, along with unique non-mining copper play, ARREF (ARG.TO).
In the Energy patch, I continue to hold EQT (NatGas), which got hammered last week (war and its emotional daily whipsaws) and NXT (Solar trackers) and uranium (UEC and URNM). I am looking to add more u3o8.
Over in the Ag-related patch, I still hold fertilizer play IPI, and am also watching MOS. The issue is that everybody knows war has been driving the Ags, but I may hold my nose and add MOS anyway in the interest of diversity.
Also held are industrial/multi-metal exploration specs, TLOFF (TLO.TO), BITTF (BTT.V), AMEGF (AE.V), MMNGF (MMG.V), PGEZF (PGE.V) and CLRMF (AIR.V). Multi-metal explorer PMI.V was also added, using the Canadian symbol, which was the only option open to me at the time of purchase. It appears that its US OTC symbol PMIXF may also be trading now. I’ll consider that for the IRA, which is not set up for direct global symbols. PMI exploded in February on a private placement. I waited for the subsequent fall out, bought, but still sport a 20% paper loss as it fully corrected the PP up-shot.
US Stock Market Sentiment
Sentiment degraded to a point that could spark a ‘B’ leg up within an A-B-C corrective situation. But sentiment did not register “epic”, as it did during the 2025 “tariff tantrum” correction.
Fear/Greed index says extreme. And it is highly elevated. But not epic.
Within the index, breadth and Put/Call ratios are indicative of investor fear, while the VIX got knocked down hard last week. Overall, the message is that a bounce within the correction can continue. Yes, the VIX looks like a ‘buy’ here, but the VIX is notoriously not conducive to normal TA.
Investment managers (NAAIM) came to a low in sentiment. But I don’t think it is the low. This also plays well with the view that we could get a continued bounce prior to a final corrective leg later. The “important low” levels shown for previous corrections would be ideal for a new and extended bullish view.
Ma & Pa got off the front porch and began hitting “SELL!” buttons. This is good and contrary bullish. But not quite to the degree of the 2025 correction. The message is similar to the above.
Sentiment Bottom Line
Contrary bullish (but)… While it is possible that sentiment sank to a level that could spur an extended rally (with the war and its instigator always at the ready to TACO and mess with the sentiment profile), I’d prefer to keep a conservative view that sees a potential bounce to ‘B’ and then favors a final decline to downside targets. In this environment, we’ll be ready to revise if needed.
Precious Metals
After the in-day hit and recovery on Friday, GDX continues to eyeball the potential of a ‘B’ leg up to short-term resistance and the 50 day moving average. This could be in unison with a stock market ‘B’ leg up. Gold stocks have, after all, been more aligned with broad stocks than not, given their 2025 leadership.
It bears a reminder that the ‘B’ up scenario, here or on SPX for that matter, is theoretical for the simple fact that it has not happened yet. It is not a prediction. It is a valid possibility that we should account for.
Beyond the broad market correction, the GDX/COPX ratio has been trending down since September, as noted above using a daily chart.
Taking a look at the weekly chart, this could merely be a consolidation of the move up and out of the base, however. This longer-term chart shows a big time breakout in gold miners (& royalty) vs. copper miners. Indeed, if the consolidation does break downward, it would probably happen during the anticipated 2026 (potentially into 2027) bull phase. Beyond that, the base breakout (green) could hold when economies re-start their deceleration thereafter under pains of the worst inflation yet.
Again, not predictions. But a game plan with revision potential going forward. Strictly as a TA, this chart tells me whatever happens on the macro in the coming year, it’s aftermath is going to favor gold stocks over copper stocks.
The bottom line of the above is that there remains a prime place in my portfolios for quality gold mining and royalty operations. But for much of the next year or longer, the sector is no longer viewed as unique.
Gold may have already made its final low on March 23rd with a pre-market spike down to the 62% Fibonacci retrace level, clear lateral support and the 200 day moving average. That does not mean it will not retest the rising SMA 200 at some point.
Silver has also done great and typically volatile downside work. It initially tapped the 62% retrace of the rally from the April, 2025 low and then recovered strongly, failed, made a lower low (pre-market, March 23rd) and has recovered a bit. If silver takes out 84, it’ll probably be on its bullish way. But there is heavy resistance in that (80 to 84) area. The all-clear to new bull highs would only come with a successful break above 96.40. In other words, don’t hold your breath for a new major bull leg.
Strategy – Precious Metals
Since there is likely to be some disturbance, whether major or moderate, to gold mining internal cost structures (due to the war induced tanking of the Gold/Oil ratio) in Q1 and Q2, I would have a level of caution on the sector as a whole (the same would go for industrial metals miners as well).
Hence why I want to watch for a potential terminal ‘B’ up in markets, including gold stocks, to be followed by a hard decline (driven by the increased mining costs). Q1 reporting will be starting soon and the meat of gold mining sector reporting should be in early May.
That said, the old question (sell or hedge?) is likely to rear its head again. I may take some profits and also hedge, which is what I did last time (along with outright shorting and put option speculation).
The stocks I hold are illustrated here in tiers per my perceived view of their “core holding” qualities:
Tier 1
RGLD, ELE, TFPM, AEM, AGI, CDE & EQX
Tier 2
OR, VOXR, SKE, DC, CTGO, RIOFF (RIO.TO) & LGDTF (LGD.TO)
Tier 3
MAIFF (MAI.V)… need more time for the “new” MAI to prove itself to me, much like NGD & EQX did previously.
Watch List
OGNNF (OGN.V), HL, USAU, WPM, BTG, AYASF (AYA.V), ABBRF (ABRA.V), etc.
At the moment I hold what I want to hold. I have little need to go adventuring deeper into the gold stock realm at this time. Theoretically/fundamentally, royalty and exploration are favored over miners in the intermediate-term due to the cost implications of the Gold/Oil ratio above.
Global Stock Markets
I often poke fun about the “make America great again” jingle, using the ACWX/SPY ratio, which has increased handily since Trump’s inauguration. This more serious longer-term chart shows that Global (ex-US) vs. SPX/SPY made a base breakout and has recently dropped to test it. Thus far successfully. It begs further consideration of global diversification.
Nominal ACWX declined to test a support shelf just above the upward sloping 200 day moving average. If you’re bullish on global stocks in 2026, it is time to at least get a watch list together.
As noted previously, Europe 600 has already made a valid support test.
As for Europe, its manufacturing base is in solid expansion mode. This in no small part due to ECB policy-easing since 2024.
As for our favorite guide to the mineral exploration sector and wider commodity/resources markets, the TSX-V index tested its 200 day moving average at a higher low to the November low and is a valid candidate for “correction over”, technically speaking.
USD & Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR)
Now, for commodity/resources, precious metals and many global markets and US sectors, the question becomes how much if any more bounce to the US dollar and Gold/Silver ratio have in them?
Options:
- USD & GSR mush around while markets take a ‘B’ leg up, USD & GSR top out at higher levels (e.g. next resistance for USD and the declining 200 day average for GSR) as markets take next correction leg, and then drop into coming inflation trades, perhaps initially disguised as geopolitical/economic relief.
- Fail here, springing longer-term inflation/relief trades sooner rather than later.
- Rise and keep going up now, wrecking everything.
The above are listed in order of favored status. But all are viable, in my opinion.
Portfolios
Gold is long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.
Taxable “Savings” Account
In order of position size. Some US market hedging against favored holds across many areas. If the ‘B’ up (prior to ‘C’ down) scenario evolves, I’ll do selling and/or more shorting.
The taxable account carries high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery. In another market phase (e.g. post-correction/bear/crash), the account may get more in the game.
Trading Notes
As you know, the small trading account is less small than it was a couple months ago because I have taken shots when they appeared as no-brainers. The best was holding puts on SLV on the day it imploded. But more routine were shorts against SLV, NEM, PLTR and GOOGL, all of which worked profitably because I was ruthless in taking profits (You see ’em? Grab ’em!).
The next high conviction trade may well come at the frequently mentioned but still only theoretical ‘B’ high of an A-B-C correction. With patience, I am stalking the idea of shorting the shit out of something or several somethings at such a juncture, if the opportunity materializes.
Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)
The chart is in correction after losing the uptrend line. As you know, I don’t put stock in trendline breaks. But I do put stock in lateral support resistance. The chart double-topped and is in corrective mode. It held support and that needs to continue to be the case. Sometimes it’s like threading a needle, but so far I am doing a decent job of limiting downside in preparation for future upside.
Cash is 23%, short-term and S/T inflation protected Treasury funds are 39% and diversified long positions (with moderate short hedges) are 38%. If the ‘B’ up scenario comes into play, I can’t see how cash/bonds would not be higher and shorting increased. But I’ll let the market direct, while remaining focused on issues like that.
Cash & income-generating Treasury bonds are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.
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