NFTRH 716, out now

For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options and more info. Keep … Continue reading NFTRH 716, out now

Post-FOMC contrarian window open

The time is now for the broad market rally to gain a following It’s a bear market. The trends make that assertion, not me. But as noted in an NFTRH update on July 28th… FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last … Continue reading Post-FOMC contrarian window open

Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential

As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision… Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this… The daily charts say one thing but the long-term charts (e.g. the 30yr yield ‘Continuum’) say another, speaking to time frames and a wider angle perspective. Markets, while chaotic this year, are playing ball with bonds in that there are … Continue reading Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential

30yr on the way to 2.5%?

It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile market, we have nailed the interest rate backdrop that the now hawking Fed has been whipsawed by and is trying to catch up to. But over educated eggheads will be over educated eggheads, and as … Continue reading 30yr on the way to 2.5%?

NFTRH 712, out now

And I gotta run! Happy 4th, folks. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or … Continue reading NFTRH 712, out now

NFTRH 710, out now

It talks a lot… For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need to scroll down) or see all options … Continue reading NFTRH 710, out now

NFTRH+; Important Treasury bond (macro) update

Per this post yesterday the 2yr Treasury yield has taken out the 2018 high and a secular bull market trend (lower highs in yields) has been broken in short-term bonds. Today we see the 30yr yield right at the 2018 high, which would officially end the long-term Treasury bond bull market. Recall that if/when this happens our plan includes the prospect that a tightening of … Continue reading NFTRH+; Important Treasury bond (macro) update

The new non-inflationary curve steepener

10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve is doing what it did when it led the inflationary hysteria of today. It is steepening. But the trick is to realize that a yield curve can steepen under either inflationary or deflationary pressure. At … Continue reading The new non-inflationary curve steepener

Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons

As they ready the FOMC minutes to be inflicted upon the markets… We note that anti-inflation Treasury bonds are still in bounce mode and hence, yields are still in pullback mode. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe … Continue reading Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons