2 year treasury bond yield, S&P 500 and 3 month T-bill yield

Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context

The 2 year Treasury bond yield, T-bill and S&P 500 beg multiple interpretations I called the 2 year Treasury bond yield the most important chart in the world the other day to poke fun at those who use such hyperbole to make a (likely biased) point, but  also to illustrating a likely topping situation in the 2 year yield. Below is the 2 year Treasury … Continue reading Putting the 2 year Treasury bond yield in context

NFTRH 739, out now

It’s back to a normal PDF format this week and NFTRH 739 digs into the particulars of the Q4-Q1 rally theme and also examines its leadership, including and especially the gold mining sector. It was helpful to me to get back into formal mode. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market … Continue reading NFTRH 739, out now

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NFTRH+; let’s watch to see if this move is real…

The move being the pullback in long-term yields this morning, which would be in line with our view of disinflation and a pivot toward the favored counter-cyclical 2023 view as bonds stop pulling back (yields stop rising) and resume their fledgling rally. Generally, let’s keep an eye on the 50 day average. The 30yr yield is dropping below it to open 2023 and as the … Continue reading NFTRH+; let’s watch to see if this move is real…

NFTRH 737

NFTRH 737 Merry Christmas folks, and happy holidays of all persuasions. Let’s jump into an abbreviated, summary style report [edit: of course it did not quite go that way as the thoughts, words, pictures and logical deductions came as they would]  this week and keep it simple at the dawn of 2023. While 2020 was interesting due to the effects of dovish Fed policy on … Continue reading NFTRH 737

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NFTRH+; Bond market indications

Long-term Treasury yields are rising this week within their intact daily uptrends. Bearing in mind that we are in the midst of a silly season, where I don’t think market signals are generally as reliable. The yields are testing the break below the SMA 50 again, within the uptrend. If yields were to rise again (trend is up after all, but inflation signals are fading) … Continue reading NFTRH+; Bond market indications

SPY vs. SP… err, TLT

Headline US stock market ETF vs. headline US Treasury market ETF The daily chart of the SPY/TLT ratio shows the broad US stock market (incl. dividends) clinging to its major uptrend (SMA 200) relative to long-term US Treasury bonds (incl. dividends). As with other indicators to disinflationary/deflationary 2023, this one is in transition. All good things in their due time, eh Beuller? So the indication … Continue reading SPY vs. SP… err, TLT

NFTRH 735, out now

Screenshot, inform the nice people about the generalities of the detailed contents of this week’s succinct (18 page) but personally very helpful report. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a link … Continue reading NFTRH 735, out now

NFTRH 734, out now

NFTRH 734 was just uploaded for subscribers. We were among the first to the Q4-Q1 party theme and now the herds have joined. There are short and long-term parameters and there is an intact view for 2023. Very intact. NFTRH 734, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, … Continue reading NFTRH 734, out now

2 year treasury note commitments of traders

Risk/Reward in the 2-year Treasury note is positive

Commitments of Traders (CoT) in the 2-year Treasury note flashes contrary bullish Interesting positioning data on the 2-year Treasury note. As per our favorable view of bonds for a 2023 deflationary uproar that catches inflation obsessed herds off sides, Commercial traders are heavily long the 2-year note while large Specs are heavily short. That is a completely bullish alignment on a contrarian basis as Commercials … Continue reading Risk/Reward in the 2-year Treasury note is positive

'real' 10 year Treasury yield

NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

NFTRH 732 excerpt discusses bonds and bond market indicators with respect to the gold price US Bond Market For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was … Continue reading NFTRH 732 excerpt on Bonds & Gold

NFTRH 732, out now

NFTRH 732 is uploaded to the archive for subscribers. It does not break much new ground but it does reinforce and add clarity to our ongoing, and thus far on track themes. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. … Continue reading NFTRH 732, out now