Before getting into the technical targeting of this update, I want to repeat that the macro view for gold stocks is different this year than it was last year. In 2025 gold stocks led the whole broad rally upward, and it was for good fundamental reason.
While the macro remains ‘pro-gold’, the war induced spike in oil prices, whether the short-term event it is now or something longer-term, is going to affect the costs, and thus margins, of gold mining operations to some degree. Look no further than the tanking Gold/Oil ratio (reminder: live indicator charts always available here).
However, there is a technical story in play in the interim. The sector made what was at least an interim bottom at point ‘A’ (daily chart below) amid deeply oversold readings. This occurred at/below the left Fib grid’s 38% retrace level and the right grid’s 50% retrace level. *
GDX could well be on an A-B-C bull market correction projected from the bull trap high of 117 on March 2nd. We happen to be closing Q1 tomorrow. The Gold/Oil ratio has only been tanking for a month. It remains to be seen how much that will compromise the Q1 numbers. But for the sake of awareness, let’s realize that the miners should be reporting results in late April/early May.
If the A-B-C is a good projection, we might want to have caution if/as GDX bounces to the 50 day moving average (blue).
Keep an eye on the left grid’s 62% retrace area (65 +/-). If there is a ‘C’ leg down to come it seems less likely it would end at the right grid’s 62% retrace area at 75. But let’s manage those details later. Right now, we should be aware of the potential for a resumed correction at theoretical point ‘B’.
I am only long gold stocks ** right now, with hedges removed around the ‘A’ low. If ‘B’ starts to look like it could be a high, I’ll do some combo of profit taking and hedging. But again, that’s a detail for later.
* Two grids have been used to cover our bases. The left grid is projected from the 12.30.24 low that began a long and grinding rally. The right grid is projected from the 7.17.25 low that came just before the most intense phases of the rally.
** Favoring royalty and exploration for reasons explained previously.
