While there are so many more markets/sectors to discuss (which we will do in NFTRH 911), and given that commodities are all over the map, let’s focus on two key areas in this update, with a word on commodities at the end.
US Stock Market
As noted last week and in NFTRH 911, the Semiconductor sector has bolted to new highs with strong leadership, and other market internals are strong. What’s more, the would-be A-B-C correction scenario for SPX is no more, as the index touches a new high. That doesn’t mean it’s not bull trap of some kind, but it does mean the A-B-C is all done and bull trap talk is highly speculative (as in, guessing).
Plan
Holding a diverse group of stocks, lightly trimming some partial profits (e.g. items like MRVL & ALAB, which went too far too quickly and are trimmed back in line) and still holding SPXS and UVXY for bearish balance. The beauty of diversification is that there is always another area ready for your capital if you’re not focused on one or two discrete areas. So profit trimming in outperforming areas makes good sense.
In the event of a bull trap scenario (there is a completely unresolved war going on, after all) I’d increase bear positioning and likely increase selling.
Gold Stocks
Unlike the broad stock market, the gold stock sector retains its potential A-B-C structure. As belabored lately, the gold stock sector is no longer special and is merely a primary member within a diverse portfolio.
GDX will either hold here at its 50 day average, rise and negate the A-B-C or it won’t. If a ‘C’ down were to come about, the 65 (+/-) area looks doable.
Plan
I have taken a few profits, reducing a few positions and selling out MAIFF (MAI.V), which has not yet earned back my trust under its new management. What’s more, I got shaken out of the DUST hedge and will either add it or JDST back if ‘B’ starts to look more than viable.
Commodities
As you know, commodities are generally favored in 2026. That excludes oil and other items subject to the war’s geopolitical influence. Those will bull or bear for reasons I don’t want to pretend to be able to manage. As noted in an update and subsequent thoughts, I like Uranium best right now, going strictly by the technicals.
Generally, commodity explorers/producers remain firm in a diversified portfolio (although profit-taking, as done with ERO and SCCO) is always an option.
