The anticipated "Goldilocks" disinflation continues and the media thinks it will last What do you think? Do you think Contrary Cramer will finally be right about something this time? Today…
An excerpt from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 785 on the state of the US stock market bubble as developed and sustained by another bubble…
With inflation fading, the US Federal Reserve continues to the fight against... inflation! The question is 'why?'. Why do Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to tilt against the…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve is grinding out a would-be steepener after the secondary extreme inversion The yield curve is pulling back currently as the Wizard has resumed complete control. Jerome…
The deceleration in backward looking inflation signals continues, to little surprise. We have been managing a Goldilocks macro (inflation not too hot, not too cold) and that is where we…
After a Fed rate pause (or "skip" as they're billing it) in June, July will be the key meeting As noted in yesterday's post, a Fed rate pause for June…
CME Group shows this to be the last Fed rate hike of this cycle Of course, all you have to do is look at the indicators beneath the surface to…
Fed minutes show just how out of touch the eggheads are The Fed minutes were published for all to see (in my case, ignore until this morning). Step right up,…
Fed Funds Rate projections from CME Group adjusted from +.5% yesterday to +.25% today Silicon Valley Bank implodes and voila, the Fed Funds Rate projection dropped on cue. I will…
Jerome Powell speech on interest rates indicates renewed hawkishness; but is the Fed behind the curve again, as they were in taking up the inflation fighting mantle? It will be…
As FOMC readies its .25% rate hike today… In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve "tardy" on several occasions as they doggedly held to their "transitory" inflation stance…
NFTRH 741 [edit] Regarding the 30yr yield continuum below, a subscriber inquired about how I interpret the yield and its future direction. I answered thusly... I wish I could be…