Last Fed rate hike coming this week

CME Group shows this to be the last Fed rate hike of this cycle

Of course, all you have to do is look at the indicators beneath the surface to know that inflation was whipped many months ago while the egghead zombies steered policy with backward looking data like CPI. This chart advised the coming inflation in Q1, 2020 and it advises the coming deflation scare in 2023. It looks forward, and that is what we as market analysts and/or participants are supposed to do, are we not?

m2, money supply and the Fed
St. Louis Fed

However, don’t take my word for it, or even M2’s word for it. Even the dim bulbs at the Fed will catch on eventually, much as they did way too late when they finally abandoned the ridiculous “transitory inflation” nonsense they were spewing in 2021 into 2022. As a side note, it’s far from just money supply data that are giving warnings. NFTRH 754 & 755 were each chock full of alarming indicators. But I digress.

CME Group overwhelmingly projects the May rate hike…

cme group projects the last Fed rate hike
CME Group

…to be the last rate hike.

cme group projects the last Fed rate hike
CME Group


cme group projects the last Fed rate hike
CME Group

…after 500-525 persists in July the votes for RATE CUTS start to gain traction with CME traders, where by November “rate cut” is the primary (78%) forecast after things remain flat into September which displays a growing contingent (47%) of traders expecting a cut by the September 20th meeting.

It’s probably time to start boning up on what happens after the Fed’s last rate hike, don’t you think?

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