Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #868
NFTRH 868 FOMC, Op/Ex & the Current View On Friday we had a twofer, a combo of typical FOMC week "machines gone wild" behavior and options expiration. So, regarding the…
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June 22, 2025
Trump 2.0, Powell and the Bond Market (NFTRH 866 excerpt)
Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866): He’s at it Again Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater…
June 8, 2025
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #866
NFTRH 866 He's at it Again Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater (of the absurd), the odds are near zero that the Fed…
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June 8, 2025
Fed Being Dragged Into the Fight by the Bond Market’s Yield Curves
Bond Market's Yield Curves to Fed: "Get your ass in gear" It is an indication from the bond market's Yield Curves implying a dovish Fed to come. But the Fed…
April 11, 2025
Yield Curves Paint Fed “Behind the Curve”
The 10yr-2yr and 10yr-3mo Yield Curves show the Fed to be behind, well, the curve With a deflationary impulse, which we have anticipated, that is the product of the already…
April 7, 2025
Down the Rabbit Hole; the Age of Inflation onDemand
Excerpted from the January 26 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 846 NFTRH 846 went much further off the normal path than this excerpt, as its writer was…
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January 26, 2025
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #846
NFTRH 846 Summary US Stock Market: With the takeout of the left shoulder on SPX and the bull flag breakout on NDX, we are a plan for new highs and…
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January 26, 2025
Contrarian Investing With Jim Cramer
The unwitting king of contrarian investing checks in Contrarian investing is simple. When the herd thinks one thing, you think the other. There is no greater tender of the investing…
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January 23, 2025
Contrarian Pivot?
The stock market's trends are up, but a contrarian pivot point is likely on the horizon Excerpted from the January 19 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 845…
January 19, 2025
Fed Funds Rate Being Dragged to a Date With the 2-Year Yield
The Fed Funds Rate is being guided down by the 3mo. T-bill yield, while the 2yr yield rises CME wiseguys are 95% sure of a .25% Fed Funds rate cut…
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December 17, 2024
“Don’t Fight the Fed” or Fight the Fed?
"Don't Fight the Fed" is a bromide you might want to ignore on this cycle This article is inspired by a headline I saw in the media while checking out…
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October 21, 2024
Cyclical Macro: “Slowly I Turn…” (in favor of gold mining)
The transition to a post-bubble macro continues making progress When the bubble makers are finally banished, when their policies are shown in the light of day (and of a rebellious…
October 18, 2024
50 Bp
The September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#828) had some things to say about the FOMC action last week, before putting its tin foil hat back in…
September 23, 2024
Think You Know Gold Stocks?
Many gold stock traders will hold for the wrong reasons, sell for the wrong reasons, and not buy back for the right reasons It is one of the most interesting…
September 13, 2024