The Matrix of Market Psychology

In the midst of work uncovering a target for the US dollar that will surprise many if it comes about, of taking a hard look at the messages of long-term Treasury yields and the yield curve, defining potential macro outcomes (inflation, Goldilocks or deflation) based on these indications and planning strategy accordingly, NFTRH 662 got a little out there with a discussion of the mindset … Continue reading The Matrix of Market Psychology

RG and Me

With RG’s permission to reproduce… This is a post that many readers will probably find unvarnished, if not crude or repugnant. In the newsletter world we are supposed to be varnished, appealing to as many people as possible. Almost like politicians. We are supposed to make an art of neutrality and lack of controversy. We are supposed to sell you newsletters and to do that … Continue reading RG and Me

Bonds Away!

Bond yields top on the Bloomberg/Gross signal, as expected Now the caveat to my constant lampooning of ole’ Billy G comes by way of a response on Twitter to one of my fun-poking tweets. The responder thinks that maybe Gross has these big pronouncements put into the media at strategic times, like when he wants to cover a massive short position, for example. The BOND … Continue reading Bonds Away!

How Perfect, the Pause in Yields?

Media screws the contrary pooch (again) This time it’s Bloomberg and its BOND KING du jour*, Bill Gross making the call. And exactly one more hysterical day followed the call before the inevitable pullback (in yields) from the hype. I make no comment on how long yields will pull back because I obviously do not know. But I do make a comment that some kind … Continue reading How Perfect, the Pause in Yields?

HGNSI Joins the Procession of Gloom in Gold

Hulbert’s HGNSI joins other sentiment-based positive indicators for Gold Just as ole’ Jim Cramer above signaled an imminent short-term rally recently in the stock market, bleak views coming out of the gold bug “community” are reliable contrary indicators. The Hulbert Gold  Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI)  is out and it is fully bullish on a contrary basis as it shows gold newsletter writers in full retreat. … Continue reading HGNSI Joins the Procession of Gloom in Gold

Now That the Dust Has Settled on #silversqueeze (RIP)

Here is an excerpt from the January 31 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 640; a segment I probably spent too much time on, given the spectacular nothingburger the #silversqueeze promotion turned out to be. Silver is back near the constructive technical standing it was at before this ill-conceived hype fest got into the market, and gold is well lower. Silver remains technically constructive … Continue reading Now That the Dust Has Settled on #silversqueeze (RIP)

The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole

Conspiracies and bias hurt investors It’s no wonder so many people have been unable to attain proper market positioning in 2020. You invest with your heart, soul, fears or even sometimes your intellect and you risk blowing yourself up at worst, or missing out at best. For much of 2020 Twitter has been a forum for ‘influencers’ with tens of thousands of followers spewing dogma … Continue reading The Year the World Fell Down the Rabbit Hole

unabomber shack

It must be a Gold bull market, because…

It must be a gold bull market, because… Certain suspects are coming out of the woodwork to scare the living crap out of gullible people. I’ll spare you the long version, but simply remind you that I know of what I speak when it comes to falling under the sway of cult leaders (even if it only felt like a cult, as opposed to actively … Continue reading It must be a Gold bull market, because…

The Men Who Stare at Charts: Ups and Downs of Trading Psychology

I have had countless situations where I’ve taken a solid profit on a stock and then watched it explode much higher. ROKU is the most recent situation. It’s tough, but it is what it is. It is really easy to see the gains you missed out on when a stock explodes higher. But what about the losses you missed out on? Last June I wrote … Continue reading The Men Who Stare at Charts: Ups and Downs of Trading Psychology

Manage Your Psych Profile [w/ edit]

[edit] Maybe all it took was this article and a little help from a “startling retail sales plunge” to turn the market right at resistance. Maybe? Note: This is not market analysis. This is a person writing words and inserting some funny pictures. It is a product of said person’s view of psychology and the modern market. First off, my honest self-evaluation: I would be … Continue reading Manage Your Psych Profile [w/ edit]