The US stock market’s trends are up. Most indexes are technically intact and it’s a bull market. So bear speculation needs to take that “good news” into account. But that stuff is what has been; what has brought us to this point. What about looking ahead based on other less obvious signals? Eh?
The VIX is once again diverging SPX. Previous signals where the VIX rises as the stock market rises or at least biases upward have pretty routinely led to stock market corrections, large and small. Timing is always the issue. I am glad I came to this a little later than if I had checked it a month or so ago because we’re closer to a would-be resolution. But these conditions can drag on for quite a while.
Given that mid-February is on average the start of a volatile period in the markets, I think it’s good to have this indication in our back pockets.
