The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in
With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It has made a variety of little whipsaws in the past, but nothing like this with respect to the monthly ‘limiter’ moving averages.
The key here is going to be whether or not TYX makes a higher high to the November 2018 high. If so it could set a new trend and completely change the macro most of us have known over the course of the ‘continuum’ in long-term yields. If not, the potential for masses of participants to be caught off sides will be substantial.
Personally, I am nervous, excited, geeked out to the max and managing risk with cash and patience. When something so obviously rigged for decades comes apart it can’t help but be scary, at least until we have a chance to evaluate and adapt to it. Don’t tell me “great reset” please. I have no clue who invented it but to my ears it’s a promo package created by a skilled marketer harvesting the eyeballs of many.
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