30 year treasury bond yield (tyx)

About that 30 year Treasury yield

30 year Treasury bond yield pulls back from 4.4% to 3.4% (on cue) I’d like to not so humbly note for public readers that long before the rising rates hysteria came near its peak prior to flaming out, this (now public) NFTRH update from last February noted a target at around the 4% level per a small breakout on the daily chart and a measurement … Continue reading About that 30 year Treasury yield

NFTRH 734, out now

NFTRH 734 was just uploaded for subscribers. We were among the first to the Q4-Q1 party theme and now the herds have joined. There are short and long-term parameters and there is an intact view for 2023. Very intact. NFTRH 734, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, … Continue reading NFTRH 734, out now

NFTRH 732, out now

NFTRH 732 is uploaded to the archive for subscribers. It does not break much new ground but it does reinforce and add clarity to our ongoing, and thus far on track themes. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. … Continue reading NFTRH 732, out now

30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated

The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out the ‘limiters’ (what I called the monthly EMA 100 & 120) and turned them to support. Then after the yield took out the next target at 3.45% we were on a hysterical spike to the … Continue reading 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated

30 year treasury bond yield (tyx)

Q4-Q1 plan engages

Relief provided by an easing October CPI ‘inflation’ report the trigger It was bound to happen sooner or later. October finally showed an easing comp in what most people think of as inflation (CPI)* and markets that were ripe to rally for other reasons used the ‘CPI inflation’ report as the trigger. NFTRH has been on alert for a potentially positive Q4, 2022 to Q1, … Continue reading Q4-Q1 plan engages

The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; watch this indicator

The little bout of positivity in the inflation markets is enough to get me questioning my short position in DBC. Here is a chart of RINF (inflation expectations), as posted in the trade log, diverging bullish from the intermediate downtrending CRB index. I don’t know who’s off sides, inflation bulls or deflationists. But I don’t plan to find out with my money on the line … Continue reading NFTRH+; watch this indicator

“Post-bubble contraction”

“Post-bubble contraction” (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience. Now after many false starts, it may finally be in play on the wider macro picture. Past contractions (e.g. 2008 and 2020) have proven to be little more than precursors, triggers to new asset bubble … Continue reading “Post-bubble contraction”


Admin Notes I’ve made the decision to revert to PDF reports as the default format, pending changes with the website that I am in no hurry to make or pending a possible work around I’d need to study further. But since I personally had no real firm preference one way or the other (other than the relative ease of the blog post format), we’ll settle … Continue reading NFTRH 726


Admin Notes Changes were made to nftrh.com last week and while I trust that most people rolled with the changes, there are a couple of changes that some may find confusing. The website’s front page is no longer a blog. It is a static page. The blog is accessible with one click from the front page. The graphic below shows the option to either click … Continue reading NFTRH 725


WIN “Whip inflation now”… That was the saying in the 1970s. Paul Volcker’s Fed then locked itself in a death struggle with inflation by raising interest rates as high as necessary to finally defeat it and provide Sir Alan Greenspan, the Maestro, a wellspring of monetary goodwill with which to begin creating the toxic mess we have today. Bravo sir! Today we are looking for … Continue reading NFTRH 724