von Mises Crack Up Boom could follow the negative economic effects of war There is currently much hype in the media about a hawkish Fed because the media wrongheadedly anticipates…
The stock market has refused to break, and despite the war-driven spike in oil prices, the macro is in an interim disinflationary phase, not an inflationary one. Ref. this morning's…
War-driven oil prices are not causing inflation You just knew that is was going to happen; that the bombing of Iran and subsequent Iranian actions were going to drive up…
This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
Our plan has been for 2026 "inflation trade" including a wider range of commodities. But the plan was subject to an interim market liquidity problem/deflation scare that would, not so…
A whiff of inflation from the Treasury market We are still in the realm of a whiff (hint, initial indication, a glint in inflation's eye) of a coming inflationary phase,…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…
Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
NFTRH 887 Reality is One Thing, Markets Are Another As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to feel comfortable in a bearish…
Important gold ratios to markets that are more cyclical When gold rises again vs. these markets the counter-cyclical economic view will generally be back on. Gold has far more utility…
Jackson Hole week is often used as a policy bull horn It is clear that the market is taking some froth off the top of several recently over-bullish areas (everything…
NFTRH 876 Market Talk At this point, far into the broad market recovery rally with gold stocks so close to the primary target (HUI 500+/-) I want to make sure…
NFTRH 873 No Laffing Matter Last week in NFTRH 872, we covered the Art Laffer mega bull view that is likely cast through a political lens. According to this view…