von Mises Crack Up Boom could follow the negative economic effects of war There is currently much hype in the media about a hawkish Fed because the media wrongheadedly anticipates…
War is not inflation, printing is inflation I firmly believe that a great game of misdirection is in play, whether intentional or just out of ignorance. That misdirection is in…
The stock market has refused to break, and despite the war-driven spike in oil prices, the macro is in an interim disinflationary phase, not an inflationary one. Ref. this morning's…
War-driven oil prices are not causing inflation You just knew that is was going to happen; that the bombing of Iran and subsequent Iranian actions were going to drive up…
The view is and has been disinflation first, then a return of the inflationary macro Sometimes I feel as though I write the same public article over and over. But…
A modified * excerpt from the February 22nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 903: The Drive to the Mid-Terms We know that the Trump administration is going…
NFTRH 903 Huey, Dewey & Louie I've been trying to make heads or tales out of the near-term US stock market situation, looking at the still vulnerable NDX (QQQ), the…
This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
Our plan has been for 2026 "inflation trade" including a wider range of commodities. But the plan was subject to an interim market liquidity problem/deflation scare that would, not so…
2025 was was a bad one in many ways except investment (IMO & speaking personally) A silver (and gold) lining was, of course, the precious metals sector for we who…
There may be a lot of silver hype, but the bull case is now square with the macro backdrop A slightly edited excerpt from the December 14th edition of Notes…
A whiff of inflation from the Treasury market We are still in the realm of a whiff (hint, initial indication, a glint in inflation's eye) of a coming inflationary phase,…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…