Goldilocks is transitional; it's what's next that will represent the next major macro theme Ever since the 30 year Treasury bond yield (one 'top-down' macro tool NFTRH uses to gauge…
With inflation fading, the US Federal Reserve continues to the fight against... inflation! The question is 'why?'. Why do Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to tilt against the…
The gold stock correction has been in play since GDX/HUI doubled topped in April-May Gold Stock Correction From a Seasonal View We begin this article, which updates the gold stock…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #768 Summary US Stock Market: While late stage rotations appear to be in play Semi & big Tech leadership held and remained intact. Bullish is…
Commodities and the 30 year Treasury Yield 'Continuum' Commodities are usually well aligned with inflation signaling from the bond market (nominal yields, yield curves, inflation expectations, etc.). My current views…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #767 Summary US Stock Market: Over-bullish, rotating toward the defensives (DJIA, Healthcare, Staples, etc.) and as such, exhibiting late stage behavior. In other words, it's…
A subscriber asked for a chart of the 30yr Treasury yield showing longer history and that prompted this update. Interestingly, the Continuum of pleasantly declining long-term Treasury yields (bond bull…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #766 NFTRH 766 will be more conversational, focused more on certain details and focused less on the normal structure of US and global stock markets,…
The US Dollar made a lower low on Wednesday as the June CPI continued the disinflationary trend How long will he tilt at the inflationary windmill? A hawkish Fed has…
The deceleration in backward looking inflation signals continues, to little surprise. We have been managing a Goldilocks macro (inflation not too hot, not too cold) and that is where we…
I neglected to include this in NFTRH 764, so here it is as an update. While we are managing a normal correction in gold and ultimately bullish forward prospects when…
The Goldilocks Rally, led by Tech/Growth stocks, motors on [edit] No sooner was this posted than Q1 GDP was revised upward from 1.2% to 2%. It's stuff like that that…
As the 10yr-2yr yield curve inversion plays out, the time is coming for a turn in fortunes Before proceeding, I'd like to remind you that this article is not written…