The gold price is getting hammered, but its ratios generally are not… And that means something. Using the associated ETFs… Gold price adjusted by the silver price: not hammered. Gold price adjusted by the crude oil price: weak today but certainly not hammered. Gold price adjusted by broader commodities: not hammered. Gold price adjusted by equities: hammered (and consistent with the little Goldilocks phase in … Continue reading As the Gold price gets hammered…
Inflation expectations are not buying the blowout January Payrolls report The 10 year breakeven inflation rate has been declining (the 5 year is similar) for the better part of a year. However, it’s likely those darn “sticky”, price gouging entities are contributing in their small or not so small way to the Fed’s still mildly hawkish stance. But today, after the booming January payrolls report, … Continue reading Inflation Expectations
As FOMC readies its .25% rate hike today… In 2021 and 2022 we called the Federal Reserve “tardy” on several occasions as they doggedly held to their “transitory” inflation stance long after reasonable people (using the right indicators) would have given up on such a notion. In this May 2, 2022 article we noted that they had finally started to move… too late. Eggheads tardy … Continue reading The tardy Fed and the new macro
December CPI report shows continued moderation of (lagging) inflation signals The December CPI report is out at BLS. Here is the table of details. Meanwhile, markets from gold to stocks to USD are jumping all around in its wake. It’s noise. Inflation continues to moderate and that is the key element for H1, 2023. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, … Continue reading December CPI continues waning inflation trend
I know a lot of subscribers read Tom McClellan, an analyst/newsletter writer who looks for market clues in market correlations and relationships, much like your letter writer does. In his most recent emailed article he notes that the TIP (inflation protected Treasury bond) ETF is diverging gold in a negative way as it is declining while gold is rising. That is true. It is a … Continue reading NFTRH+; about the Gold-TIP divergence
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As the November CPI report moderates, disinflation continues apace As the great and powerful Fed of Oz prepares to render his decision (ha ha ha) on the Fed Funds rate, the bond market is popping and leading a party atmosphere (well, Wayne and Garth have been in party mode all along) in other markets to party along too. I know, because I am short both … Continue reading November CPI report: We’re on plan
The gold/inflation expectations (GLD/RINF) ratio has bounced within a major daily chart downtrend To finish turning the macro from inflationary to dis/de-flationary, we’ll need to see gold bust its downtrend vs. inflation indicators like RINF. With seasonal relief still very possibly in play it would not be surprising to see gold fumble around some more in relation to this ‘inflation expectations’ ETF. But when it … Continue reading Gold vs. ‘Inflation expectations’
30 year Treasury bond yield pulls back from 4.4% to 3.4% (on cue) I’d like to not so humbly note for public readers that long before the rising rates hysteria came near its peak prior to flaming out, this (now public) NFTRH update from last February noted a target at around the 4% level per a small breakout on the daily chart and a measurement … Continue reading About that 30 year Treasury yield
NFTRH 734 was just uploaded for subscribers. We were among the first to the Q4-Q1 party theme and now the herds have joined. There are short and long-term parameters and there is an intact view for 2023. Very intact. NFTRH 734, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, … Continue reading NFTRH 734, out now
NFTRH 732 is uploaded to the archive for subscribers. It does not break much new ground but it does reinforce and add clarity to our ongoing, and thus far on track themes. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. … Continue reading NFTRH 732, out now
The 30 year Treasury bond yield (Continuum) is 100% on the NFTRH plan The plan was set in motion when first the the 30 year Treasury yield (TYX) took out the ‘limiters’ (what I called the monthly EMA 100 & 120) and turned them to support. Then after the yield took out the next target at 3.45% we were on a hysterical spike to the … Continue reading 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ updated
Trey was an NFTRH subscriber back when he was a research analyst at Sprott, and has since gone on to form or at least become a major part of the Bristol Group, based here in MA. That was how I got to know him (by email, at least). I should actually meet him some day as he’s down the Cape and I am west of … Continue reading Trey Reik on monetary policy & gold: A Call to Arms
