inflation

Notable Public Posts

Send in the Clowns

Last week the Fed treated us to a whipsaw as market perceptions apparently were not in line with the FOMC policy statement, which was basically a punt.  Then the very next day the Fed’s James Bullard  jawboned the media about a possible October Federal Reserve tapering.  Hence, a letter writer was left with images of a 3 ring circus heading into the weekend.  From the opening segment of the September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:

Last week’s opening title was ‘Get Ready for a Climax to the ‘Taper’ Hype’ and boy did it ever climax.  The FOMC rolled over and the market over reacted.  Everybody it seems (bears, bulls, inflationists, deflationists, gold bugs; everybody) was punished at one point or another.  James Bullard even had the nerve to get in front of a microphone and exercise his jawbone about a possible October ‘taper’ and the anti-climax was on.

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September 23, 2013
Notable Public Posts

The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation

In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible.  It’s  the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making.  5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)?  Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.

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September 20, 2013
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Precious Metals & ‘Inflation Trade’ After Fed Roll Over

Here is what the US Fed did to the currency it is supposedly a steward of yesterday.  The USD plunged below an important support level.  If this breakdown holds below 80.50, it measures to the mid-70’s.  Enter an ‘inflation trade’, in which we’d look to fan out from the precious metals and include other commodity and global stock items.

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September 19, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Gold: “Taper This”

The media love to get a hold of buzz words and then give them a spin and a life all their own.  Recent examples were the mainstream media’s presentation of ‘Operation Twist’ – which was simply an official yield curve manipulation designed to sanitize and dampen inflationary signals – as an inflationary operation, and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ drama that sent herds of conventional investors to the sidelines* when they should have been contrarian (and bullish) back in Q4, 2012.

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September 17, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Silver, Gold and a Global View

Last week the Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) failed to get with the bear memo as the sector got a hard shakeout, and look what happened.  This week through the ups and…

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August 14, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Rates of Interest

[edit]  Formatting errors have been corrected from an original version posted earlier. The following is excerpted from this week's Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 247: As the 10-year to…

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July 15, 2013
Notable Public Posts

A ‘Carry Trade’ Returns?

As I was charting long-term Treasury yields in NFTRH 241, I ran a chart of the ratio between the banks and the S&P 500 and what do you know?  The…

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June 3, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Young FrankenMarket Lives

Excerpted from Notes From the Rabbit Hole #237: Young FrankenMarket Lives In failing to take a “healthy” correction to the equivalent of SPX 1350 to 1450 from the upside target…

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May 7, 2013
Notable Public Posts / White Papers

Gold Ratios – An Update

Current gold ratio setups, a real world view of ratio analysis 'White Paper' As the Cyprus drama and other macro events play out and distort normal macro economic signals to…

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March 22, 2013