Look folks, I realize that the last month has been fun for everybody with stocks and commodities bottoming and joining the bounce party. Reproducing the Multi-asset chart from NFTRH 386 once again, we see that gold led the whole thing by a couple of months and as of this morning’s pre-market post was pretty much still in line. Well, a $15 shave today and it’s looking more suspect.
#386 slims down to a focused 22 pages from #385's bulbous 49 pages. There is no need for more volume because all plans are intact, markets are within existing parameters…
A whopping 49 pages and not nearly as difficult to digest as that sounds. Lots of charts and graphics populate what I think is a very cohesive report managing multiple…
The Federal Reserve states that its goal is to promote employment and economic growth while regulating inflation. As if it is as simple as pulling levers, tweaking a few knobs…
Here is a look at today's economic data releases. This follows on to yesterday's big bump in Durable Goods (+4.9% correcting a previous -4.6%). The market is cheering the 1%…
Silver vs. Gold and Tip vs. TLT say "no inflation trade yet". Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas…
With reference to Michael Ashton's post at Biiwii... No Strategic Reason to Own Nominal Bonds Now Mike Ashton is also known as the "inflation guy" and for good reason, his…
We have noted anecdotally that there is a creeping inflation in the system. It does not show up in commodities, which are in a post-bubble (ah, the good old 'China…
Copper has a long-standing target of 1.50/lb. That is the marker that would take the "copper is very bearish, technically" out of the equation. Might 30 bucks a barrel contain…
Just for perspective, ref. Michael Ashton’s post about the CPI and inflation. He is a specialist in inflation-sensitive investments and makes the interpretation of inflation and inflation expectations his business.
The FOMC is meeting tomorrow and it is always risky to speak in definites when such a potentially market roiling event (one way or the other) is in play. But a few things are happening in inflation sensitive markets that should be watched.
First, as we noted in an NFTRH+ update yesterday, Treasury yields are rising. Here is the 10 year in a bullish looking pattern.
According to the amalgamation of 'Leading Indicators' to the economy, it is time for a rate hike. Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree's post…
20 pages, a little Tin Foil, a lot of historical facts and some logical deductions. NFTRH 359 out now.
What a week; and I am not talking just about the markets! I spent all day on jury duty yesterday and by the time they finally unshackled me I saw just how volatile things had been. I also saw that my ‘bounce’ gains had evaporated into the close.
As CPI will attest, consumer prices are certainly not suffering at the hands of the pervasive global deflationary environment. Housing, Healthcare and other services are not easily going to give back embedded price gains. In NFTRH 356 I tried to express this in an admittedly muddled Indicators segment.