After an interaction with an NFTRH subscriber (the ones with whom I have corresponded are so smart it can be intimidating sometimes) who debates the view of a pervasively inflationary…
[edit] Please see a new post with more perspective on a would-be 'inflation trade' and its limitations. The following excerpt is the opening segment from this week's edition of Notes…
45 pages and not nearly as difficult to get through as that sounds. Things seem very clear to me about what is going on with the macro backdrop. The May…
I don't write the title because the precious metals took off today on the bad jobs report. Far from it. That is what gold is supposed to do under such…
We have been noting that a 10 year break even rate of around 1.6% was the line in the sand on a continued 'inflation trade' after the bounce. The 10yr…
We looked at the precious metals miner ETFs on Tuesday and the status there has not changed. They are still below the EMA 12 & 20 but trying to hold the 50 day moving averages, which means they are still in short-term downtrends and intermediate up trends. For my part, I added a couple items on downside activity (explorer/developer PG.TO just above its MA 200 & royalty/streamer SLW at its MA 50s) but also still hold the DUST and JDST hedges, as noted in the NFTRH 397. This hedging, which sometimes proves unsatisfying could last hours or days. As noted in the previous update, the struggle to hold the MA 50s will decide whether it will have been a quick correction or something deeper.
Gold bugs especially should be watching Yen and USD. The trend is against Uncle Buck and with the Yen and if that holds up we could be looking toward the…
Last night's post on the US stock market ended as follows: "As far as the Fed and its puny rate hikes are concerned, that is irrelevant. This market is flipping…
Okay, I'm pooped. No promo. :-( [edit] Well yes, there is a promo. It's from subscriber Joe F: "So fucking good." Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly…
The thing that is not trustworthy if you are a deflationist or (anti-inflationist) is that the ‘inflation trade’ is getting kicked down by the ultimate jawbone, the FOMC minutes. Often inflammatory events in markets have a short shelf life. As such, the Silver-Gold ratio does not need to get hammered much lower, based on this event anyway.
This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395. I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title's…
Here we play the short-term technical game again despite the gold sector running against its own fundamentals (i.e. as the ‘inflation trade’, including mining cost input oil, continues higher). At some point this will matter.
But on the other side of the coin are price, momentum and technicals. A Monday open can be a tricky thing, but as of this moment GDX is in a posture to break the most recent consolidation.
41 pages to make a few simple points? Well yes, a few simple, yet critical points and a whole lot of other perspective and updating of the whole global financial…
I am not saying this is the top in the silver-gold ratio (SLV-GLD), but I am saying that if this is the top (for this phase) then commodities and the…