Goldilocks hangs in the balance of the Bessent, Warsh, Trump media drama We find ourselves at CPI/PPI week, just prior to FOMC week. Let the cacophonous Misdirection Olympics begin! You…
Operation Twist 1.0 was a stroke of pure (evil) genius by Ben Bernanke 15 years ago, and two modern day Wizards may be trying to engineer something similar today "Sanitize"…
The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…
A recession (and bond rally) is oncoming, but first the stock market has to finish doing what it does... [edit] In the time it took to write this post the…
Excerpted from the June 8th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#866): He’s at it Again Trump is badgering Powell relentlessly about interest rates. Aside from being great theater…
Tariffs and the global trade war could flip the macro inflationary (stagflationary) sooner than expected "It's complicated." An answer that may be given by people when asked about their relationship,…
Jordan Roy Byrne was nice enough to have me on once again to talk, and talk, and... well, you know... about the precious metals and the macro situation Thank you…
Amid Trump's latest tariff threats, long-term Treasury yields are bouncing Donald Trump apparently thinks that Smoot Hawley and the Great Depression were good ideas. A real history buff, I guess.…
Musk and the bond market are in a convenient alignment, but the bond market situation has been in progress since 2023 Our (NFTRH) view has been for falling inflation signals…
The stock market is reacting to some media stuff about China's DeepSeek AI model, which is tanking Nvidia, and thumping Tech as a whole, and pressuring the broad market. Ah,…
This FOMC day feels different than those we've had all year as the Fed leaned into its dovish stance with the diminishing of inflation signals and oh yes, the oncoming…
The Fed Funds Rate is being guided down by the 3mo. T-bill yield, while the 2yr yield rises CME wiseguys are 95% sure of a .25% Fed Funds rate cut…
Yesterday we noted in an NFTRH+ update: Right now it [silver] is at clear resistance. Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio is nesting on its SMA 50 & 200 and is neutral…