There is no excerpt because this is a protected post. Continue reading Protected: NFTRH+; the other side of the bond market
The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It … Continue reading The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest
Not very happy signaling from the Pigs Neither nominal KBE… …nor the KBE/SPY ratio are looking very good in the face of rising yields. Indeed, KBE above is in a nasty looking pattern as it stands now. The banks are normally thought to benefit from rising yields, but I think a ‘carry’ on the short end is busted. But then again, you could view the … Continue reading Banks/Broads in the face of elevated L/T yields
The front page screenshot does not tell us much about the report’s contents because I was spent from thinking about details all weekend. But it does have some very helpful content, IMO, at this complicated market juncture. NFTRH 693, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market … Continue reading NFTRH 693, out now
Very helpful as a guide in times of change, sorting through different short and long-term conditions and associated strategies. NFTRH 692, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button … Continue reading NFTRH 692, out now
10 and 30 year Treasury yields break consolidation We had an NFTRH update yesterday discussing the implications of a consolidation breakout in long-term Treasury bond yields, as was hinted at yesterday morning. Those implications are both for near-term positioning and a bigger picture macro view, all of which is being furthered today. Now the little hint has become something that everybody now knows, after the … Continue reading It’s almost as if bond market wise guys knew…
Gold’s ‘real’ price indicates a fine ‘risk vs. reward’  Since this article will be distributed to a wider viewership than nftrh.com, where regular readers know I take pains not to hype this most precious ‘value’ asset, take note that a positive risk vs. reward does not mean run out and go whole hog gold stock bull right this minute. Risk vs. reward is a … Continue reading Gold; a stellar picture
These correlations are several years old, so they are a very generalized view of which sectors do and do not tend to do well when yields are rising. I thought it might be a good idea to post it for reference since 10 and 30yr yields are doing this to start the new year… Continue reading NFTRH+; Sector correlations to rising long-term yields
Since NFTRH 681 put its stock picking pants on I want to make sure we’re following the market backdrop this week if/as things change or affirm. Long-term Treasury yields have been grinding upward over the last few trading days with the 10yr especially looking constructive. Daily chart… I use the 30yr as our big picture monthly ‘Continuum’ guide because it has so consistently been resisted … Continue reading NFTRH+; Back on the macro…
FOMC is set to cease bond buying The worst kept secret in the financial world is that the Fed is going to taper the bond buying macro manipulation that kick started the inflation trade and the cyclical economy along with it. That would theoretically be bond-negative and yield-positive. But is it possible that long-term Treasury bonds have already been sold down pre-announcement, with a decline … Continue reading Bond market to buy the news?
Gold as correlated with the CPI/TNX ratio has implied downside Earlier I saw some stuff about a gold breakout and thought about how they never seem to learn. They either never learn or they never want followers to learn (too much). It’s like those scary social commentary stories; keep the masses dumb, stupid and asleep. But that is just me, being judgemental and unlikable (by … Continue reading Risk implied for gold by this picture
#678 slims down just a bit but covers the relevant areas. And sure, we went macro again in order to help my own orientation, along with anyone else who may have appreciated it. It’s all about forward macro views for preparation, longer-term, and functional views in the short-term with respect to current macro. Stocks relevant to today’s macro, including commodity-related and stocks relevant to the … Continue reading NFTRH 678, out now
Part 2 appears to be taking off now after the summer cool down. But part 2 is not going to play out like part 1. It will be more difficult for more people one way (increasing inflation problem) or another (inflation failure and bust, which is what has happened historically in the post-2000 era of Inflation onDemand). It is time to know the macro and … Continue reading Inflation Trade, part 2
The Continuum continues to form its right inverted shoulder In the spring the NFTRH plan was for a “summer cool down” in inflation expectations and the inflation trades. This after noting that the situation had become overdone in the public consciousness, untenable to the (self-consciously inflating) Fed and thus, unsustainable. Inflation indicators then spent the summer backing off and the 30yr Treasury yield Continuum dropped … Continue reading Continuum: Right shoulder, present arms!