The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond’s yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield’s fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking Fed wants (needs). CRB index is still on trend, Oil has a chance to crack here, Industrial Metals (headlined by Doctor Copper) have long since broken down and the Ags are creeping a rally up … Continue reading The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers

t-bill yields and inflation expectations

What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its ass in gear and get on the rate hike regimen it is now on. Evidently, it still is demanding. Quite demanding, actually. Yet the ETF that tries to represent inflation expectations is in full retreat … Continue reading What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

NFTRH+; 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ status

Just a quick snapshot to update the Continuum’s status. Please recall that we are looking for the yield to make a lower high to the 3.5% (actual: 3.45%) high of November, 2018. Today’s tick has hit 3.3%. Got to love the markets, always pushing things to the limit. The bottom line implication would be that a notable change in the macro could well happen this … Continue reading NFTRH+; 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ status

The new non-inflationary curve steepener

10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve is doing what it did when it led the inflationary hysteria of today. It is steepening. But the trick is to realize that a yield curve can steepen under either inflationary or deflationary pressure. At … Continue reading The new non-inflationary curve steepener

Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons

As they ready the FOMC minutes to be inflicted upon the markets… We note that anti-inflation Treasury bonds are still in bounce mode and hence, yields are still in pullback mode. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe … Continue reading Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons

Bonds again diverge inflation headlines

Bonds up today despite alarming inflation headlines The hysteria of the moment, served up as usual by the mainstream financial media off of backward looking data/results, has not resulted in bonds getting clobbered as would normally be expected. As was the case after last week’s CPI hysterics, Treasury bonds of all durations are positive today. This despite the very real and concerning inflation data behind … Continue reading Bonds again diverge inflation headlines

NFTRH+; the other side of the bond market

In NFTRH 704 we reviewed the shortest end, where the 2 year Treasury yield is nearing its decision point, whereby a continued rise in yields would indicate a bear market while a failure would keep a lower high in place for yields (bond bull intact). We also reviewed how the Fed Funds has finally caught up to the 3 month T-bill yield. This morning 2 … Continue reading NFTRH+; the other side of the bond market

The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week’s inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way to a 4% long bond yield and maybe even von Mises’ crack-up-boom territory or just a more epic whipsaw and reversal. The 30yr yield is definitely in full frontal inflation mode at the moment. It … Continue reading The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest

Banks/Broads in the face of elevated L/T yields

Not very happy signaling from the Pigs Neither nominal KBE… …nor the KBE/SPY ratio are looking very good in the face of rising yields. Indeed, KBE above is in a nasty looking pattern as it stands now. The banks are normally thought to benefit from rising yields, but I think a ‘carry’ on the short end is busted. But then again, you could view the … Continue reading Banks/Broads in the face of elevated L/T yields

NFTRH 693, out now

The front page screenshot does not tell us much about the report’s contents because I was spent from thinking about details all weekend. But it does have some very helpful content, IMO, at this complicated market juncture. NFTRH 693, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market … Continue reading NFTRH 693, out now