The Sahm Rule is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am... it is just one unexceptional and somewhat lagging indicator to the coming recession "We are pointed toward…
The new Yield Curve steepener has not yet un-inverted, but it's in progress and thus far mildly inflationary Reference Inflationary Yield Curve Steepening? from January 11. In my opinion, after…
After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10yr-2yr yield curve A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or deflationary pressure.…
Inflation reads flat and core CPI hits 2 year low; because of course they did! One year ago we began projecting a coming bull rally that would be the product…
This inflation phase is done, so says the bond market It is as I've been saying for at least a half a year now; inflation is done. For this cycle…
The 30 year Treasury bond yield 'Continuum' in its creator's words [edit] YouTube channel now operational. I'd love it if you'd care to subscribe. It's actually another test of sorts,…
The 30 year Treasury yield 'Continuum' is postured above 3.4% support and below 4% resistance The monthly chart of the 30 year Treasury bond yield is stacking candles below the…
Interest rates have bounced since the big Payrolls report. These rates are generally supportive of USD when they rise and not surprisingly have been in correction for much of the…
2 year Treasury bond yield continues to diverge T-bills Well, this nerd is amazed by it (and several other out of whack macro indicators), at least. The 3 month T-bill…
The 2 year Treasury bond yield, T-bill and S&P 500 beg multiple interpretations I called the 2 year Treasury bond yield the most important chart in the world the other…
The move being the pullback in long-term yields this morning, which would be in line with our view of disinflation and a pivot toward the favored counter-cyclical 2023 view as…
NFTRH 737 Merry Christmas folks, and happy holidays of all persuasions. Let's jump into an abbreviated, summary style report [edit: of course it did not quite go that way as…