NFTRH 726
Admin Notes I've made the decision to revert to PDF reports as the default format, pending changes with the website that I am in no hurry to make or pending…
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October 9, 2022
NFTRH+; Almost there…
Nothing is set in stone, including the 30yr yield stopping at our 4% upside target. That said, if you're going to have targets and chart based road maps, it's best…
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October 7, 2022
NFTRH+; where things stand near the close of Fed week
The inflation hysteria - despite the actual mechanics of inflation, like True Money Supply and Fed policy that bloated it - are in the rear view mirror. What is so…
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September 23, 2022
The ‘Continuum’ and its fellow travelers
Commodities and inflation expectations have/had been rising right along with the long bond's yield But some of the 30 year Treasury yield's fellows are dropping off, just as the hawking…
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September 22, 2022
NFTRH+; pre-FOMC interest rate landscape
Hot inflation is still in the news! You can click the image if you'd like to read the hype. CME Group was and still is overwhelmingly projecting a .75% rate…
September 13, 2022
NFTRH 715 (online edition)
An unexpected commitment has popped up this weekend and so this week's report is posted online in a format that is easier for me to manage, time-wise. It will be…
July 23, 2022
What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?
The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its…
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July 12, 2022
The Fed’s position, in one picture
The Fed Funds rate has caught up to the 3 month T-bill yield, but the 2 year yield lurks above You can see that the Fed closed the gap as…
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June 15, 2022
NFTRH+; 30yr Treasury yield ‘Continuum’ status
Just a quick snapshot to update the Continuum's status. Please recall that we are looking for the yield to make a lower high to the 3.5% (actual: 3.45%) high of…
June 13, 2022
The new non-inflationary curve steepener
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve…
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May 26, 2022
Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons
As they ready the FOMC minutes to be inflicted upon the markets... We note that anti-inflation Treasury bonds are still in bounce mode and hence, yields are still in pullback…
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May 25, 2022
Bonds again diverge inflation headlines
Bonds up today despite alarming inflation headlines The hysteria of the moment, served up as usual by the mainstream financial media off of backward looking data/results, has not resulted in…
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May 18, 2022
NFTRH+; the other side of the bond market
In NFTRH 704 we reviewed the shortest end, where the 2 year Treasury yield is nearing its decision point, whereby a continued rise in yields would indicate a bear market…
May 9, 2022
The Continuum; center stage during next week’s inflation data fest
The 30yr Treasury yield takes center stage as inflation data come in With next week's inflation data orgy we may find out if this chart is truly on its way…
May 5, 2022