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This FOMC day feels different than those we’ve had all year as the Fed leaned into its dovish stance with the diminishing of inflation signals and oh yes, the oncoming presidential election. This FOMC day comes post-election with the battle lost (by the democrats). I am not theorizing that the Fed and Biden admin (with former Fed chief Yellen in its side car at Treasury) conspired to create a stable macro into the election, but I am also not beyond believing that such politics can be played to some degree behind the scenes.

Long story short, Biden is done. Yellen is done. Long-term Treasury yields have been kicking upward, although they have not broken the flag on a monthly basis:

I have rid myself of most of the inflation trade stuff (including many precious metals positions over the last several weeks because they’ve been painted with the anti-USD “inflation trades” brush and well, profit is always good), which somewhat ironically tends to get croaked when inflation signals rise and Fed-hawk fear permeates. This drives the USD upward and the anti-USD stuff comes under pressure.

These are my moves pre-FOMC with notes about why I made them. Right or wrong, as stated previously my goal is to be 100% intact and ready for any bull or bear drama out ahead. 2024 was a good year and I am going to keep it that way.

I’ll be open to going long precious metals per the seasonal lows that on average come about in December/January (ref. yesterday’s NFTRH+ update) and I’ll be open to a new and likely late stage stock market upside blow off. I will also be open to holding a ton of cash and shorting this mess if/as indicated.

But right now, we have the last FOMC of the year amid tax loss selling season and the Santa seasonal not quite here yet. So I am pulling in and staying patient. I just don’t care for the mix of inputs right now. And that includes, prominently, the strong USD and Gold/Silver ratio combo as they are currently.