It appears another FOMC was used as a reason to bull the markets (on hopes about a softening Fed) and then drop the markets (on dashed hopes). Gotta love those machines; programmed for max noise and mayhem. SPX appears on track for our original and longest standing target, the 3200 (+/-) area as the futures (ES) are down another 1% this morning. If that is … Continue reading NFTRH+; SPX, Commodities, Gold & Silver, post-FOMC
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional … Continue reading FOMC hot off the press…
FOMC, inflation, commodities & gold Even as inflation expectations roll over from the 2022 high… …the CRB index continues to bounce. Here’s DBC for an up to the minute view. This is of course driven by OPEC and its ‘+’ members conniving to manipulate the price of oil, one of the prime drivers of CRB/DBC. And CME Group has upped the .75% rate hike probability … Continue reading .75% rate hike probability rises with commodity bounce, inflation indicators go the other way
CME Group traders favor a .75% Fed Funds Rate hike on November 2nd Meanwhile, inflation expectations have been cracking lately. My thesis is and has been that the Fed is going make damn sure they exterminate this (inflation) monster they were primary in creating. Because if it regains life it will eat them alive and end their racket. For “best of breed” top down analysis … Continue reading CME wiseguys see at least .5%, favor .75% for next FOMC meeting
Because here’s the anticlimactic event (that’s an assumption because this is written prior to the FOMC release) you’ve been waiting for… September 21, 2022 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply … Continue reading Speed readers to your marks…
Eggheads assemble, as FOMC meets Ooh, can’t you just cut the tension with a knife? FOMC is going to hike the funds rate by at least .75% tomorrow and according to 18% of CME Fed Funds traders, potentially a full percentage point. The Fed is taking its commands (not direction, not suggestion, not indication, not even demands, but commands) from the bond market seriously. The … Continue reading T-minus 1 day, 4 hours and 42 minutes…
“All eyes are on Powell’s widely anticipated 10 a.m. ET speech at the central bank’s annual symposium in Wyoming.” Oh really, Mr. MSFM article? Really? All eyes are on Powell at Jackson Hole? Click the image if you want to have the article harvest your eyeballs for an event that should be already factored by the markets, but appears to be an excuse for summer … Continue reading Media Jawbone of all Jawbones…
FOMC is 1.5 months away but the jawbones interfere with markets at will [edit] I actually got up on the wrong side of the bed, so I am not my usual pleasant self. I’ve been getting up on that side of the bed since getting run over by this a-hole on Saturday night… Fed’s Daly says ‘our work is far from done’ on inflation; Evans … Continue reading Enter the Jawbones [w/ edit]
Hot off the press… Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures. Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events … Continue reading FOMC: Speed readers on your marks…
An unexpected commitment has popped up this weekend and so this week’s report is posted online in a format that is easier for me to manage, time-wise. It will be more of an abbreviated bullet point style rather than the usual formal style. This post is started during market hours on Friday, so while the book is not closed on the week I think we … Continue reading NFTRH 715 (online edition)
And I’ve gotta run. It’s been a busy few weekends this summer. Next weekend will be no different. But then I think my schedule clears up nicely, just in time for July 27th event. NFTRH 714, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ … Continue reading NFTRH 714, out now
Yesterday’s little contrary CPI bounce has failed as of pre-market this morning. Stocks (ES, NQ, Global) are down and base and precious metals are down as well. They of the contrary bullish CoT structures. Bond yields are on a small bounce and of course the star of our show, Uncle Buck is up again (DXY ticks a new high at 108.87). This is happening with … Continue reading NFTRH+; the favored plan lives
A scenario that was not mentioned in the previous update is that gold stocks (and other sectors, including the inflation stuff) could rally off of CPI, but that the big buy signal could still be at or after FOMC. What I mean is that there could be an oversold sentiment bounce at any time, especially from long-term support. But such a bounce could fail prior … Continue reading NFTRH+; further to the previous update
The Fed Funds rate has caught up to the 3 month T-bill yield, but the 2 year yield lurks above You can see that the Fed closed the gap as demanded by the 3 month T-bill today (blue extension is my artwork). You can also see that the 2 year Treasury yield is higher than the last high in 2018, quite possibly ending the bond … Continue reading The Fed’s position, in one picture
