Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and … Continue reading FOMC

FOMC aside, maybe the real news comes next week

There will be inflation headlines next week The Fed’s ‘decision’ (ha ha ha) is in the bag. They are finally going to do what this chart has been demanding they do. But what about this graph? Credit spreads are rising again and that is not good. Not good at all. One wonders at what point the inflation comps may start to fade, YoY. One wonders … Continue reading FOMC aside, maybe the real news comes next week

NFTRH 697, out now

Just doing its job keeping us right with the markets’ (plural) probabilities as usual. NFTRH 697, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button on the right sidebar (if … Continue reading NFTRH 697, out now

NFTRH 696, part 4

The final segment of NFTRH 696. US Stock Market (TA) Here is a look at the relative performance of some US sectors. Healthcare, Utilities, Staples and Pharma are considered more defensive and they are out-performing SPY/SPX. The median stock has stabilized as participants are shooting the formerly high flying over-owned, over-valued headline stocks. Importantly, let’s recall that in the history of the last 3 occasions … Continue reading NFTRH 696, part 4


Economic Eggheads of the oval table speak…

I wrote the title before the release and don’t know what the January FOMC statement will say. My guess? No policy change (hold today, hike anticipated in March) with maybe a couple sweet nothings inserted or previous phrases altered just a teeny to whisper a little sweet nothing in the market’s ear about how if inflation expectations were to drop too rapidly (they have been … Continue reading Economic Eggheads of the oval table speak…


Speed readers at the ready; November FOMC Statement

Translation: We inflated out of panic beginning in Q1 2020 and we are still inflating, but at a tiny increment less. Furthermore, the committee stands ready to continue the inflationary operation at any such time that our indicators may start to fade, given the recent pullback in inflation expectations and our unfilled goal of burdening you with inflation of 2% or more. What’s more, we … Continue reading Speed readers at the ready; November FOMC Statement

Bond market to buy the news?

FOMC is set to cease bond buying The worst kept secret in the financial world is that the Fed is going to taper the bond buying macro manipulation that kick started the inflation trade and the cyclical economy along with it. That would theoretically be bond-negative and yield-positive. But is it possible that long-term Treasury bonds have already been sold down pre-announcement, with a decline … Continue reading Bond market to buy the news?


Tapering “may soon be warranted”

FOMC statement So there you have it… The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved … Continue reading Tapering “may soon be warranted”