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Silver, Silver/Gold & Party Time

Well, it happens. There will be times when my favored scenarios do not play out. In the current case, one of three possibilities (one of two that were favored) is disqualified and it is entirely possible – with holiday seasonal caveats – that the least favored case will play out. Allow me to dive deeper and review the options.

1. Broad correction continues (incl. precious metals), finds a hard bottom significantly lower prior to a face ripper of a rally. DISQUALIFIED
2. Correction is all done and the anticipated holiday party has already begun. This had been the least favored. If this option were to unfold, it was expected to be shorter and less intense than a recovery rally from option 1. IN PROGRESS but holiday caveats aside, the impulsiveness (of silver, especially) suggests power and potential FOMO incoming.
3. Correction is all done and the precious metals lead the whole mess higher, continuing the bull market in the PMs and targeting SPX (nominal) measurement of 7400 before stocks under-perform and a potential “inflation trade” rotates in. VIABLE

That would be a representation of the 1970s, per the chart above. I had expected it to manifest sometime in 2026, but it is possible that internals rotations toward the “inflation trade” will start sooner. Reference recent articles (and recent work in NFTRH):

Commodities and the Next Major Macro Phase (11.16.25)

A Look Ahead As Gold Stocks Resume Rally, Broad Market Shakes Off Mini Correction (11.26.25)

You may know I can be a cautious sort. But keeping in mind that it is the holidays and market signals are not what they will be for most of a given year, option 3 did take a step forward. However, it will be wise to keep in mind that after this profitable year, many people may be tempted to take profits pushed into the 2026 tax year, after January 1st.

But today’s signals are electing the year-end bull case (Captain Obvious) and holidays or not, our task is to interpret, manage and profit from it. Per an NFTRH+ update on 11.26.25:

I don’t want to use holiday seasonals or any other excuse. In being open to, even favoring a hard decline to clear the sentiment pipes, if the Silver/Gold ratio takes out its double top, the party is back on, sooner rather than later and one of my favored scenarios will have proven wrong.

That update showed these charts of the Silver/Gold and Gold/Silver ratios threatening their double top/bottom scenarios. They went on to do this.

That my friends, when taken at face value is, well, hit it boys…

And so for silver, forget the SMA 200, the gap, and the would-be deeper Fibonacci retrace levels. The double top, complete with negative RSI divergence, played out to the 50 day average only before ramming to a new all-time high. I added PSLV after making the Nov. 26 update linked above. On silly-seasonal Friday it followed through to a new all-time high. Now silver must prove itself in a non-holiday week.

I also added Pt & Pd holder SPPP on that day, as I have noted the PGMs often seem to follow in silver’s wake. It then followed through as well.

Whether we are indeed entering an “inflation trade” or just a punch-drunk year-end holiday party, many related stocks provided and still do provide buying opportunities (assuming no post-Thanksgiving reversal).

For example, over the last couple/few weeks, on pullback buy opportunities, I bought usual suspects IDR, UUUU, LAC (and fellow Li stock SLI, which pulled back to support), URNM, UEC along with bull stocks like AMD, META, ALAB, PANW, and added a tank job in ES (on an acquisition failure). Precious metals stocks like MAI.V, KNT.TO, GROY, GGD.V and ELE were added/added back. As were a couple TSX-V exploration “basket” items, MMG.V and PGE.V.

ELE, a precious metals-plus-commodity (after EMX merger) royalty, was highlighted in an NFTRH+ update for its tap of the 200 day moving average. As noted along the way, I began adding positions despite not favoring the short-term bullish outcome because I was hedged. Sort of like a balancing act.

As for gold and silver stocks, most of the less speculative items have already regained the bull. I’m letting them ride, including some adds just before holiday week upside moves. So I will not chart them because I’m not considering them as technical buying opportunities (unless you’re a breakout trader, which I am not). There are a few that could provide opportunity, however.

MAIFF (MAI.V) is one that is still early on because it is trying to turn its fundamental fortunes around. It bottomed in September, 2024, tested the bottom 3 months later, and has turned its moving average trends up. If you think Doug and company are going to successfully turn things around (elusive permit and mine acquisition from fellow holding Equinox Gold) the stock is still buyable.

WDOFF (WDO.TO) filled a gap and popped back above the SMA 50. It’s obviously a bull trending stock and I have it on watch. I was hoping for the rising SMA 200, but no such luck so far.

WRLGF (WRLG.V) banged its SMA 200 and associated support. Also on watch, but I want to review the company again before buying. If the sector continues upward, that review may need to be of the flash variety, because…

…this is what these stocks can do if you futz around too long. I came ‘this’ close to buying back AYASF (AYA.V) at the 200 day average. ‘This’ close I tell you. Its chart is similar to MAI and WRLG above, in that only recently have the moving averages shifted to uptrends.

Moving on to wider commodity areas…

While some items (e.g. IDR, PGE.V, LAC, etc.) have started to move, others like UEC, UUUU, MMG.V and watch list item NEO.TO simply remain postured. As you can see, NEO is starved for volume. RSI and MACD look sneaky good, implying it could hold here. But a quick drop to the rising SMA 200 (orange) could be a low risk add.

If silver truly is leading Wayne & Garth back to the punch bowl there are plenty of stocks that have not moved yet, but likely will.

Me being me, I have to advise that I am not writing the above to instigate greed and certainly not FOMO. I am just trying to follow the market. On its face value, it busted bullish last week. A holiday week. Even if a Santa rally is in the offing there could be some volatility first. Santa could also be followed by trouble in January. Bigger picture, however, we should respect the idea of a wider macro “inflation trade” phase.

December FOMC

Despite the Fed chief himself advising that a December rate cut is not a done deal, 86% of CME Fed Funds traders expect a .25% cut. It is obvious that is what suddenly euphoric markets also expect.

And therein is a vulnerability. CME has been wildly wrong in the past. It would really fall in the lap of the Powell Fed to decide whether the market needs a curve ball or not. If they were to hold, the market’s reaction could be severe. If they were to cut as expected, the market could sell the news, maybe providing a secondary buy opportunity before a Santa party.

Depending on what I see pre-FOMC (Dec. 10), I’ll certainly keep “short-term profit-taking” as one of my options for certain holdings. The main question I have now is whether this is just a seasonal rally prior to a deflation scare or the start of the 2026 “inflation trades”? It’s an important question with an important future answer.

If FOMC rolls over as expected by the majority, the US dollar is probably going to decline from the small double top of its recovery bounce. If FOMC pulls a surprise “hold”, USD could rampage, silver could reverse, the Gold/Silver ratio could recover…

…and a market liquidity crisis could ensue. Does Powell really have the stones for that? Trump is compromised. Maybe he does. Adding another nail in Trump’s political coffin?

More Indications & Some Stock Charts

Markets have busted bullish. This could be the next leg to SPX 7400 and silver, gold and the miners to who knows where? But it could also be a bull trap of sorts. Either sooner (FOMC week?) or later (January/Q1?).

Our plan had been for a year-end rally and it arrived sooner than was favored. Frankly, post-FOMC would have been more reassuring (speaking personally).

2025 has been successful year, taking most of it week-to-week. I see no reason not to continue that way. We ended last week bullish with prospects of more stocks to rally in the wake of the Silver/Gold ratio. Let’s also note that the TSX-V/TSX ratio did good downside work and bounced from a 50% Fibonacci retrace level. While it could have dropped to the 62% Fib, this was a solid reset.

If the Silver/Gold ratio’s breakout is real, I don’t see why a lot of speculative ‘V’ stocks can’t scream higher into year-end. Again, let’s not be too greedy, but let’s also not be too conservative if the signals are true.

The nominal ‘V’ Fibbed 38%, held support (going back to 2016-2018, not shown on this daily chart) and bounced. A 50% Fib, daily chart support, and the rising 200 day average would have been preferred. But if this is a new bull market in the ‘V’ as part of a global “inflation trade”, you know what they say about bull markets; they don’t tend to pull back far enough to comfortably let you back in.

To that last point above, not all went swimmingly for me last week. Nickel driller TLOFF (TLO.TO) was a massive winner for me/us in 2025 (thank you, Michael), but I let the disgusting look of its daily chart keep me from buying it back. Then the goofy holiday week got involved, and it got involved with some volume. I don’t know if I will buy it back or not. But it is another illustration of the “bull market” point made above.

One area I am remiss about is copper mining. If the inflation trades are already in play I’ll grab a TECK here or COPX there. But with the PGMs and other metals catching on as well, I’ll be patient. I’ve got a lot of smaller, more speculative stuff from around the commodity spectrum that I’ll be discriminating with new industrial metals positions. TECK, for example, looks good if it takes out resistance at 44.50.

Multi-metal explorer MMNGF (MMG.V) was noted earlier as one of the items that has not really moved yet. It remains in consolidation of the previous rally as it starts to turn its moving average trends up after putting in a bottoming pattern. A reminder that both MMG.V and PGE.V have sponsorship from large miners, which is an important reason I have the level of interest I do.

Also a disclaimer of sorts: In 2026 I plan to establish a podcast that, among other things, will on occasion feature two geologists I am luck enough to include in the subscriber base. One of whom is intimately related to both MMG and PGE.

As for the precious metals and commodity/resource areas we should do as we have done all year; keep close watch on the combo of the Silver/Gold and TSX-V/TSX ratios. They’ve been great guides. The neck-snapping reversal in the SGR during holiday week was an outlier. Going forward the signals should smooth out to confirm a bullish backdrop or reverse it during any given week. Hence, “week-to-week”. Eh?

Moving on, let’s look at some of what I call “bull stocks”. Regular stock market stuff, often Tech oriented that regardless of what I think about the stock market or its inherent valuations, I trade or even hold (e.g. AAPL has been hanging around since June). Below are charts that are still prospective, not those that have already gone up a lot.

As you may know, I had a thing for ALAB. A very profitable thing. It was bought back despite the ugly pattern after getting creamed on the negative AI promotions the media put out over the last couple months. I added it below support and above the SMA 200 with the idea that I could ride further down if it was going to tap the SMA 200. Which it still obviously could.

Another chart I find attractive as a would-be buyer is ORCL. That’s a whopper of a pullback to support. I did not buy it (yet) because a) I think Larry Ellison is an a-hole, and b) this company is choked with debt. But if I put on my impartial “stock trader chart guy” suit, I may yet add this POS. I love the chart as a buyer.

I added META a while back, near the lows. If the seasonal holds, it could target a gap fill and the 760 area.

BABA may be in an A-B-C correction that could end at any time. But a clear buying opportunity would take place at or below 140 and the rising 200 day average. A weakening USD would help here. I have this on watch for buy-back.

PANW was added as part of my plan to participate in the Bull Stonk Olympics for a while. After failing to prove out a bullish looking pattern it dive bombed and was added.

I have no allegiance to stocks like this or certainly not the likes of ORCL. But neither do they:

AMD was added on a little dive bomb of its own, again with the idea that if you’re lookin’ to join a bull party, a clear buying opportunity (support at 185 or the SMA 200 at 151) may not present. Then again, it may, which is another reason I’m posting these charts. It is still stuck below the 50 day average.

Finally, QCOM has been held for a while. In its current setup riding the moving averages, I may consider a second position or increasing the existing one.

Market Sentiment

As we had noted, sentiment became over-bearish but not extremely table-poundingly so. Again, the party got going sooner than I personally expected. Had sentiment wiped out to bleak (e.g. April lows) and had the markets dropped to deeper target levels, we’d have had a view of a more intense and extended rally/bull phase. As it stands now, if indeed year-end party season has begun, that’s all I’m willing to consider at this time: year-end (possibly into Q1).

Ma & Pa continue to retrench, which is contrary bullish. But as you can see by the bottom bar, it is far from a real bull signal of 62% bears. This was before Friday’s market bull fest.

NAAIM (investment managers) were actually bull-biased before Friday’s upside. Hardly a contrarian bull signal.

The Fear/Greed index shows extreme fear, however…

…when reviewing its components I have nitpicks, as usual.

• VIX is expressive of complacency, and thus not “neutral” in my opinion. That alone backs the broader “Extreme” gauge off to “Fear”.
• Put/Call is elevated, indicating a moderate level of angst. But it also dive bombed from a more extreme level. I’d call it neutral.
• I’d also shove Safe Haven and Junk bond demand into “Fear” territory from Extreme.

All in all, sentiment registered enough bearishness to ignite a rally. Obviously now, since a rally ignited. But in not registering anywhere near the angst of the April lows, this fits an operating plan that sees year-end rally, at best right now, with no further bull view.

That does not mean new inputs will not come in to extend or terminate the current bull view. It means where we are at right now is a year-end rally theme, same as we began with months ago before considering the now-defunct deeper interim correction view.

Portfolio

Gold is long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.

Taxable Account

In order of position size.

I am still holding the Healthcare related stocks, although the XLV/SPY ratio ticked down – as we thought would happen amid a year end party – with last week’s joy fest. I am going to hold those positions week-to-week, and evaluate each on an individual basis. Here’s the XLV/SPY chart:

As you can see, more “bull” stocks like AMD, META and PANW are starting to show up.

Favored gold stocks are held, and elevated prices or not, I’d like to add an AEM here and/or FNV there as part of the balance of this portfolio. Also holding smaller more speculative items like MAIFF, PGEZF, MMNGF, along with KNTNF and OGN.V, which I consider less speculative.

As we proceed toward Santa, and if the year-end rally view remains intact, I’ll add more positions from around the asset market spectrum. I have a hunch that Uranium may rev up again, and that is why URNM is held. It could be increased if that view firms.

The taxable account carries high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery. In another market phase (e.g. post-crash), the account may get much more in the game.

Trading Account

No positions.

Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)

Chart did the right thing, held trend and popped back toward the highs. Steady as she goes.

Cash and income generating equivalents are at 76%.

If/as the year-end rally view moves forward I’ll likely press it further. I’ll look for pullback opportunities like some of the ones shown above, or just quick pullbacks within uptrends. Particularly in gold and maybe silver stocks. The “maybe” there is because I’d just as soon buy silver bullion, as per the PSLV position (added at a discount to NAV). Individual stocks with notable silver aspects are WPM, GLGDF and a couple others with silver as part of their presentations.

But I am respecting the “inflation trade” view of an expanding play out to more commodity/resources areas. Hence, the likes of PGEZF, MMNGF, ELE, IDR (Au & REE), UUUU (u3o8 & REE), LAC & SLI (Li), etc. Also, I will consider increasing the new MP (REE) position.

I have TLOFF, BITTF, NOPMF, DBLVF (if it pulls back further), CCJ, TECK, ADBRF and others on watch.

Cash & income-generating Equivalents are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.

Refer to the In-Week Notes under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for market talk and occasional trading info, if interested. Also, you can follow on X @NFTRHgt for notice of updates.

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