A scenario that was not mentioned in the previous update is that gold stocks (and other sectors, including the inflation stuff) could rally off of CPI, but that the big…
The Fed Funds rate has caught up to the 3 month T-bill yield, but the 2 year yield lurks above You can see that the Fed closed the gap as…
Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.…
FOMC to raise the funds rate by .75% It's actually not big news as last week CME Group traders had crept up to 20% odds that the Fed was going…
With CME, you and me all expecting .5% hike that's a given. The wording will be interesting, but we all know the bond market is forcing them to do what…
There will be inflation headlines next week The Fed's 'decision' (ha ha ha) is in the bag. They are finally going to do what this chart has been demanding they…
FOMC finally to get a bit more serious about its hawkish stance After delaying and probably hoping against hope it would not have to do this, the Fed has to…
Just doing its job keeping us right with the markets' (plural) probabilities as usual. NFTRH 697, out now. For "best of breed" top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe…
The final segment of NFTRH 696. US Stock Market (TA) Here is a look at the relative performance of some US sectors. Healthcare, Utilities, Staples and Pharma are considered more…
As the market rises, Fed jawbones emerge on cue But it's more than just stocks, check out the 2yr yield below. That's the real driver. You see, into the last…
I wrote the title before the release and don't know what the January FOMC statement will say. My guess? No policy change (hold today, hike anticipated in March) with maybe…
As FOMC meets to discuss what everybody knows... The Fed is likely to signal a March interest rate hike and that further policy tightening is coming "The Fed is likely..."…
Translation: We inflated out of panic beginning in Q1 2020 and we are still inflating, but at a tiny increment less. Furthermore, the committee stands ready to continue the inflationary…
FOMC is set to cease bond buying The worst kept secret in the financial world is that the Fed is going to taper the bond buying macro manipulation that kick…