Yield Curve Smashed
This is just breathtaking, as the would-be steepener is now dead and buried. It has the feel of a final and dramatic move. A lot of things are making dramatic…
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August 13, 2019
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Yield Curve Control, Whether Intended or Not [edit: Trump Tweets, Dow shears 300 points; high comedy]
[edit] I started a simple yield curve post with the markets very green and before hitting the Publish button see a red stock market on Trump tweets, about which I…
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August 1, 2019
Yields and Some of the Things They Influence
Long-term yields bumped up today... This of course bumped my position in the T-bond bear up. It bumped my position in the Regional Banks iShares up. It bumped Uncle Buck…
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July 23, 2019
10/2 Yield Spread, Live
With the June Jobs release behind us, the 10/2 yield spread/curve (CNBC) is left to do its part in indicating the future. It maintains its steepening potential, but is on…
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July 5, 2019
Da Rate Cut Boyz Back Off a Bit
Last time I looked at the CME futures traders' projections for the July FOMC, there was no (zero, none, zilch) chance for a rate hold with the only question being…
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July 5, 2019
10/2 Yield Spread Alligator Chomping Along
The most recent tooth in this alligator's jaw is toward the flattening side as the 10/2 continues to grind out a potential steepener for 2019. It's not me saying that.…
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July 2, 2019
Yield Spread Launches on FOMC
Aye aye aye, the yield curve liked (or didn't like, depending on how you view it) something that went on today after 2:00 US Eastern time. Ref. the earlier post…
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June 19, 2019
Updating the Yield Spread (simple post morphs into a full frontal screed)
Here is the 10/2 as presented live here. The spread is pulling back very recently but maintains a modest uptrend (steepening) for 2019. Here is the 5 year view showing…
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June 19, 2019
The Yield Curve’s Unpleasant Macro Hint
As per the last post the curve did steepen today. Here's the daily chart. Looks kinda similar to early October, doesn't it? Okay, that is a negative for many markets,…
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June 5, 2019
Yield Curve
I don't have a real time vehicle (that I know of) to see the 10yr-2yr yield curve in-day, but I do have the SHY (1-3 year) Treasury bond fund (positive…
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June 5, 2019
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX (and a Crack Up Boom?)
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues... The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks... While the nominal 2 year yield does…
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March 22, 2019
2-Year Yield Pushes Back, Supports US Dollar Today
Here is the 2yr yield on a bounce today but still below the down-crossed SMAs 50 & 200. And here is USD taking a bit of a bounce (not surprisingly…
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February 1, 2019
Long-term Treasury Yields on the Move
The 10 year yield is in a short-term bounce pattern, which is completely unsurprising as it goes in positive correlation with stocks on their relief bounce from the risk 'off'…
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January 16, 2019
Watch the Damn 2 Year Yield
We have had several indicators swinging bearish but a big holdout has been the 2 year Treasury yield's signal that the Fed had not yet gotten ahead of itself. Here…
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November 20, 2018
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