Just a note from your friendly Macro Tourist that June 30th is another big QT bond maturity day. Kevin Muir recounts the implications here… Mark It On Your Calendars Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content at NFTRH.com by using the … Continue reading “Mark It On Your Calendars”
An alert subscribe reminded me that Thursday is Fed ‘SOMA’ day, which is a day that the Fed is due to sell another chunk of Treasury securities. Isn’t it neat how they are bidding T bonds up (in line with our short-term contrary view) as the Fed prepares to sell? Reference the post at Biiwii on May 16 in which Kevin Muir highlights Martingale Macro’s … Continue reading NFTRH; SOMA Enters the Equation (med. priority)
He’s the one in the middle, looking like he’s bracing for something… The 10yr yield has officially hit 2.9% today (the 30yr still has a bit of headroom to 3.3%). It is not lost on me that there is much talk of inflation in the air, sort of like a mini Q1, 2011. It’s easy to get worked up about interest rates and inflation today. … Continue reading 10yr Yield Amigo Officially Hits Target Today
When writing things from a contrarian perspective, like the preceding post discussing a bullish contrary setup for the 10yr bond, I find it helpful to remind readers who was bearish when appropriate. That would be us… Below is a screen grab from a December 4th post on the subject… A Favorable Morning for the 3 Amigos of the Macro This was so long ago I had … Continue reading With Respect to the 10yr Bond/Yield
The risk in the Treasury Bond/Note market is in not having any Treasury bonds. At least that is what the sentiment backdrop is saying. I hold a ton of SHV (income paying cash equiv.), but also IEI (3-7yr) and IEF (7-10yr). This despite much energy being put into media promotions telling us that the bond bull is dead. The bond bull will be dead when … Continue reading The Risk in the Treasury Bond Market is…
I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme. I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the … Continue reading USD/Euro to Be the 4th Horseman?
Also known as members of the risk ‘off’ contingent, the gold sector and Treasury bonds are doing some interesting things today. HUI got down to the mid-180s and is forming a potential Hammer, which would be a reversal candle (with short-term significance, at least). We had noted the 180s as being a significant downside target and here I want to review again the monthly log … Continue reading NFTRH; Miners, Gold and Treasury Bonds
It’s all we’d asked for; a direction… please? Last week NDX got near its highs and the SOX got above its SMA 50, leaving the Dow and SPX still in technical correction/consolidation mode. No more. Now, assuming this is not just a news-induced whipsaw, we have a market that is not overbought setting its sights on new highs. The reason I don’t assume it’s a … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Direction Chosen
A snapshot of US markets, Treasury bonds, commodities and precious metals on a day when a .25% rate hike is fully baked in… There is no sign of anything other than a consolidation within an uptrend, technically. This is by the way, why there have been hardly any short setups (as opposed to long setups) noted in NFTRH+. We did a look ahead on the … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Setup, Pre-FOMC
Using the most representative or notable index/ETF for each segment, let’s update the general status for a range of items (U.S. and global stocks, T bonds, commodities and gold) with a few informal thoughts. As it’s older brother, the Dow, exceeds our target (21,000), the S&P 500 lurks just below its target of 2410. While the market can (and probably should) correct at any time, … Continue reading Multi-Market Summary
A couple weeks ago in NFTRH 434 we introduced this chart, representing some of the more counter-cyclical items vs. the S&P 500 (SPY). I already own some gold miners and long-term Treasury bonds (TLT) and noted an interest in Utilities (XLU, since added per NFTRH 435). Taking a look at the nominal daily chart of XLU, this item added as a balance to long positions … Continue reading NFTRH; Pictures From the Counter-cycle (Utes, T bonds & Gold)
Wow, what a stock! Okay, wait a minute; it’s a cash equivalent in the form of very short-term Treasury Bills, and has only risen from 109.80 to 110.37. But it’s regarded as the safest cash and it will track the Fed’s rate hikes in 2017 and beyond, if applicable. Here are the Fed Funds futures expectations per (CME Group). The futures wise guys largely expect … Continue reading Look at This Cash Equivalent Rocket Ship (SHV)
Look at these bedfellows that are sleeping together in a sign that all does not feel well with the market, post-inauguration. TIP-TLT is in a weird, toppy looking short-term pattern. The inflation that has been seen as a sure thing under Trumponomics is still in waiting. Yet Uncle Buck, who I guess is being spun as desirous of increasing inflation expectations (the would-be implication of … Continue reading Post-Trump, Some Items Go Limp, Others Firm
From last night’s update: With a failure, I’ll try to go net short or simply sidelines. With a breakout, net long. All the while, until the correction is broken to the upside or the sector gets wiped out, I am viewing gold stocks as just another play in the market. A break of the channel would turn the daily trend up, but the upside marker … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold Stocks and Other Recent Highlights Updated
