I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.
I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up.
Anyway, here is another monthly view, this time of Amigo #2. Yes I know, I beat this stuff to a pulp and irritate some of you, but again I’ll say you try writing millions of words over 14 years and see if you don’t look for colorful ways to present the sledgehammer that is your analytical case.
Look at the charts directly above, especially. Does that look like a broken trend to you? Ray Dalio, a guy who I actually enjoy reading and listening to (unlike the “bond king” Bill Gross), says bonds face biggest bear market in 40 years. The macro is set up with the foremost authorities aligned to put everybody on a certain side of the market once the Amigos get to their destinations, which on the two charts above are the red dashed moving average ‘limiters’.
Now, is the crowd going to have the straight scoop at that most critical of times? I am not saying that the likes of Gross and Dalio are promotional weasels like those you can see here and here. But I am saying that maybe they are not the know-all higher beings that the media anoint them as, simply by being rich and high profile.
I brow beat us all to death on this stuff because while you may be astute, nimble and continuously grounded I need reminders and reinforcement about what is in play. In 1999 I had similar giddy feelings as I have today but was clueless about what lay just ahead. In 2018 I enjoy the process all the more because I have these road maps in play, which have first brought me to this point prepared to speculate but will even more importantly, ideally guide me (and NFTRH) as to when to not be speculating.
All I can say is that the limits on Treasury yields, on USD & Euro, on stocks vs. gold and on the yield curve all seem to be aligned right now. The best you can ask in financial market management is for plans to be making sense; and right now they are.
* Right! There is no such thing as a dysfunctional indicator. Only dysfunctional indicator interpreters failing to adjust.
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