If you’re only watching market prices (and drama) you’re missing key points beneath the surface I have not posted yet this week due to being preoccupied elsewhere, due to having done a lot of work lately getting in tune with what’s going on across the markets, due to being bored with the idea of being the guy telling gold bugs don’t buy gold because of … Continue reading Two macro charts
As part of some year-end housekeeping I have replaced the decade+ old content under the NFTRH Tools tab with stuff from the modern era. Much of the wording is the same but much has been changed as well. That is because of this thing called evolution, which NFTRH has been going through continually since it was birthed in 2008. So why not update accordingly? It’s … Continue reading ‘Our Tools’ updated
Thing 1 continues to emerge from its bull flag while Thing 2 is breaking down from its bear flag. Logical, eh? Macro dorks, have at it with your interpretations. Slowly I toin. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas. You can … Continue reading Gold/Silver Ratio: Slowly I… well, you know
Well, it turns out that NFTRH was timely in resurrecting this indicator to highlight the divergence in equal weight SPX to headline SPX back on February 9th in NFTRH 589. Here’s a screenshot of how this indicator was reintroduced for subscribers’ review (with the understanding that no single indicator is the secret sauce in and of itself, I make the distinction that the indicator knew … Continue reading Turns Out SPX Equal Weight vs. Headline Knew the Correction Was Coming
The recent journey has been out of a jittery summer filled with trade war anxiety, into a rally and breakout in the S&P 500 and a Q4 bounce in the global macro inflation/reflation trade that, if it remained a bounce only, could last into Q1. Well folks, here we are well into January and some indicators are on the verge of turning negative. If they … Continue reading NFTRH; A Few Macro Indicators to be Very Aware of Right Now
Random internal views for a Wednesday morning. Putting pictures to what is normally a color coded written NFTRH segment in order to save space within reports that are routinely over 60 pages. Here was the view as of last weekend. Moving on to today, the 2yr yield has stabilized and the 10-2yr curve is still steepening on the short-term. The reflation trade lives, if lamely. … Continue reading Mid-Week Market Internals
Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of supposed economic splendor and fruitfulness (it is these contradictions that are the windows into a ginned up, leveraged economy dependent on monetary policy) while the S&P 500 breaks through the bull turnstile to blue sky. A real economy … Continue reading The 2 Horsemen
Just a light duty post to show you 3 different items that would travel together in a would-be reflation trade. This chart is probably over a year old and was originally used to gauge the topping of the last inflationary rally. Today we note that each Amigo is in a similar bounce posture. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly … Continue reading 3 Other Amigos Well Aligned
This morning in pre-market the Amigos’ futures charts update the macro story… …which goes something like this… Copper, the cyclical Amigo (weekly chart) has furthered the intermediate trend line break we noted on October 25th. This is in line with the rally in US and global stock markets and even more so, the global macro reflation theme. It does not look so impressive yet on … Continue reading Updating the 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message
No matter whether or not gold resumes its correction, as these ratios trend down the proper macro backdrop is in place for a bullish view on the counter-cyclical gold stock sector. Some cyclical asset markets (and a couple yields) vs. gold… SPX/Gold DJW/Gold CRB/Gold Copper/Gold Crude Oil/Gold 10yr Yield/Gold 2yr Yield/Gold And finally, the one that could lead the whole mess to a new cycle … Continue reading vs. Gold
As if its ears were burning when I mentioned it in the previous post, the Silver/Gold ratio hopped on and is starting to ride this morning. Now, the questions are… Will this moving average breakout stick this time? Will Copper and other inflation beneficiaries make final washouts first? In the markets, things don’t tend to happen on large scales in real time to our analysis. … Continue reading Silver/Gold Ratio Gets on its Horse
A few NFTRH indicators and internals gauges. To save space we usually include a select 2 or 3 in the weekly reports and color code Bullish, Neutral or Bearish with some notes for the whole raft of ’em. This is a good opportunity to throw some visuals up here at mid week. The 2 year yield continues to trend down and guide the Fed, while … Continue reading Indicator/Internal Odds & Ends
From NFTRH 537’s Market Internals segment… “Who’s leading you astray, nominal Junk or its hidden bearish indicators?” Junk has since made a new high. Whee, party on Garth! Junk/Investment Grade is not buying it, however. Nor is Junk/LT Treasury. Notice how Junk bonds vs. higher quality bonds were in line with nominal Junk at the September highs. Now? Not so much. Garth is advised to … Continue reading Who’s Leading You Astray?
I am on record as leaning toward a seasonal rally (with the FOMC wild card stuck right in the middle of the deck), but it has been elusive as we enter the heart of Santa season. Meanwhile, NFTRH tracks key market and economic internals each week and color codes them Bullish | Neutral | Bearish. It’s probably no surprise that more and more have been … Continue reading The ‘Man in the Middle’ Loses Blue Sky
