The S&P 500 (weekly, log scale) and a few of its risk indicators
Progressing along and gaining a comfort level with this medium, here is the latest macro blurb to check out. For we nerds, this stuff is fascinating. Way more so than stock picking, Fed obsession, doom and gloom or bull greed forecasting. Just a market and the indicators informing its forward view.
Side note. You may need to set your video quality at the highest level for a nice, clear picture.
Also, you can view the YouTube version here (and I’d be thrilled if you’d subscribe for future videos).
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This Post Has 9 Comments
Hi Gary: I’m new to you reports and I’m just getting used to your style and terminology.In this report you state that stocks have turned down in relation to Gold. Are you referring to gold stocks or SPX stocks? Further to this – the high risk you see later in the year is that comment referring to gold stocks, SPX stocks or both? I’m looking forward to plying these trouble water with you at the helm. Cheers
Mike, the discussion above does not factor gold stocks at all. But if/when SPX drops notably vs. gold and also commodities do the same gold stock funda will be excellent. But there is also the hazard of inflation bug selling potential first. So the big gold stock buy could still when the whole mess falls apart. That is a potential I want to pay a lot of attention to, to either negate it or confirm it.
Loved this Gary. Please do more. One small consideration: How about using your pointer during the talk to draw our attention to the areas on the charts you’re talking about. I’m a tech savvy guy and so have no problem following but others might not find it easy to know exactly what or where on the charts you’re referring to.
Anyway, looking forward to more of these (and your NY accent?).
Boston accent! I’ll try to incorporate a pointer, John. But with this video for example, I need to use the mouse to click record/stop recording as I go along because I’m just talking, not reading. So my thoughts formulate in segments while I am looking at the chart’s segments. But I’ll see what I can do with that and to improve the overall presentation. Still getting used to this.
That was fantastic. Very clear and easy to follow. Also, the right length of time. Enjoyed it.
Thank you. I tend to run out of things to say about the 9-10 min. mark. :-) Still getting comfortable with the medium, so keep an eye out. I expect it to develop going forward.
Hi Gary, really enjoy your content! I’d like to ask you about the FED’s response depending on the nature of the steepening. Why assume the FED wouldn’t be able to rescue (aggressive rate cuts, I guess) in the scenario of a deflationary steepener? Many thanks!
Well, where the Fed is concerned I try not to assume anything. But with the way the Fed’s balance sheet and M2 money supply got so extreme on this last inflation operation and with indicators like the 30 year Treasury yield (a measure of the system’s tolerance for inflation, IMO) breaking long-term trends I am just not quick to think that what has been over the last couple of decades will be going forward. At least I think the Fed was given a slap across its big egg head to think twice about the next inflationary operation. I think that from that perspective a deflationary tank job would not be unwelcome.
Makes sense, appreciate you insight!
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