.75% hike in the bag
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group... And so says the bond market... ...as the Continuum spikes to and through our target…
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October 19, 2022
Bonds continue to indicate contrarian potential
As the almighty Fed (of Oz) prepares to render its decision... Treasury bonds continue to hammer out interesting daily chart patterns. Some notes on this... The daily charts say one…
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July 26, 2022
30yr on the way to 2.5%?
It would seem so, as the current NFTRH target awaits despite a hawking Fed While day to day it can be frustrating watching a plan play out in a volatile…
July 22, 2022
High yield credit spreads continue to rise
Rise in high yield credit spreads threatens recession A rising spread indicates disfavor toward junk bonds (oh so favored during speculative risk 'on' phases) and this behavior can eventually either…
July 8, 2022
The new non-inflationary curve steepener
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve…
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May 26, 2022
Just another ‘bonds are diverging inflation hysteria’ post as they ready the goons
As they ready the FOMC minutes to be inflicted upon the markets... We note that anti-inflation Treasury bonds are still in bounce mode and hence, yields are still in pullback…
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May 25, 2022
Wouldn’t you know, T-bonds continue to posture to rally
Amid hysterical inflation headlines, Treasury bonds remain firm Of course, inflation is yesterday's news. That was the news that bonds had been reporting since mid-2020 when yields bottomed and turned…
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May 20, 2022
Bonds again diverge inflation headlines
Bonds up today despite alarming inflation headlines The hysteria of the moment, served up as usual by the mainstream financial media off of backward looking data/results, has not resulted in…
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May 18, 2022
Does this look like inflation?
I didn't think so; not this week. Well of course they have not even taken the SMA 50 yet, but isn't it funny how during yet another inflationary 'lagging data'…
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May 12, 2022
New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve
Yield curve steepening, but there's more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary.…
May 9, 2022
In order to change the secular trend in the 30yr yield…
The 30 year Treasury bond yield is in its multi-decade downtrend until the November, 2018 high is taken out In early 2021 we projected the potential for an Inverted H&S,…
April 29, 2022
The Continuum: Through the limiters!
Inflation pushes the 30-year Treasury bond yield through long-term moving average trends! Okay, let's take a breath. I don't like to use '!' in titles or even in articles. In…
April 15, 2022
High Yield credit spread rising again
Junk bond indications under rising pressure again When last we updated the High Yield spread it was easing in line with the market relief that came with a market bounce…
April 14, 2022
Relief, in the form of credit spreads
High Yield credit spread eases On March 15 we noted that High Yield option adjusted spreads were rising, which was a distinct economic/financial negative if it were to continue. It…
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March 31, 2022