Does this look like inflation?

I didn’t think so; not this week.

Well of course they have not even taken the SMA 50 yet, but isn’t it funny how during yet another inflationary ‘lagging data’ hype week we have Treasury bonds – among the worst casualties of the inflation created in 2020 – rising?

The thing is, it was lonely when we were forecasting inflation in mid-2020 and it is lonely now forecasting the opposite – or at least a hard surge toward the opposite – today. But that’s contrarian analysis, ain’t it?

The best part is that in 2020 the inflationary view was backed by forward looking indicators, sort of like the deflationary events to come are also backed by forward looking indicators. Bonds are simply starting to pick up on it.

99% of the professional investing community are still on the inflationary…

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