.75% hike in the bag

FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2

So says CME Group…

And so says the bond market…

…as the Continuum spikes to and through our target of 4% (+/-). The above represent the short end. This is the long end and it is just as impetuous. Well, actually not quite, given the flattened to inversion yield curve. But this is epic stuff going on and theories abound out there about what the future holds. I’ll keep it simple (stoopid) and continue to consider a range of viable outcomes and the potential for Q4 to bring meaningful changes to the macro markets. Not much simpler than cash for the time being.

When you ponder a chart like this, filtering out all the stuff you hear in the news and from smart people, maybe you think about ‘equal and opposite reactions’. Something like that? How much more opposite could we be now compared to Q1, 2020? Not much.

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