To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?” To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had … Continue reading Inflation Cools (for now), Stag Awaits
Calls for funding US chip production The market will show me to be wrong if the likes of AMAT and LRCX break down. I hold both of them because while they are part of the supply-constrained Semiconductor sector, they are not chip makers. They are chip making capacity providers. The equipment used manufacture Semiconductors. Here is a report that showed up on my Fidelity screen … Continue reading Semi Chip Making Capacity Initiative
All in the service to playing a game of ‘Hide the [inflationary] Cheese’… April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates Here’s the release from BLS, which you can get by clicking the headline. I had felt that the underside of the 2.5% – 2.8% caution zone on the Continuum would bring some kind of halt to yields … Continue reading Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back
Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold) Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not … Continue reading An Inflationary Slingshot
US now finds itself on outside of two massive Asia-Pacific blocs From Nikkei Asia: Five RCEP takeaways: Asia cements grip as free trade torchbearer In my opinion at exactly the wrong time Trump’s America has turned inward, gone protectionist and has introduced regressive policies that will see it lose momentum in many areas. Now, I don’t dispute the great technology infrastructure in the US and … Continue reading Asia Rising, US the Land of the Setting Sun?
China’s Politburo is not sitting idly by while Trump pushes them around. From the Nikkei Asian Review… Why China’s ‘dual circulation’ plan is bad news for everyone else Rebalancing in 2008 also relied on raising the contribution of domestic demand in China’s growth. It was coupled with the idea that driven by faster growth in domestic consumption, China’s long-standing current account surplus would give way … Continue reading It’s Not Just the U.S. Pulling Back From the Global Economy
In Friday’s post about the Stock/Economy Pumper-in-Chief we also noted regarding economic ‘experts’ AKA economists: Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by economic activity). Here’s the … Continue reading Surprise!
…but today he’s vigorously pumping the Jobs number. His Twitter is littered with the stuff. What a spam artist. Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by … Continue reading Not Only Was He Tweet-Pumping the Stock Market the Other Day…
The data sets at Yardeni.com are fabulous. You should keep it on watch and rummage through when you have spare time if you want to nerd out. The current backdrop calls for an open mind, about today, about yesterday, about the decades that have brought us here and by extension, about tomorrow. It is not as simple as “I am a bear” or “I am … Continue reading A Companion to the Continuum
When I used to publish other peoples’ stuff at biiwii.com one of my favorites was the Daily Shot Brief. So this post is just a reminder that The Daily Shot Brief is linked at nftrh.com’s massive links page any time you want to check it out, which could very sensibly be every day (best option is to put it in your reader if you use … Continue reading Watch the Daily Shot, daily
It is difficult in the midst of panic and loss to think about others, but I know a lot of people are doing just that. I am too. There are so many people suffering or going to suffer hardship from this exogenous event that is turning into a massively economic event. The people who clean our houses, the people who wait on us at bars … Continue reading A helping hand…
 As with all these posts that include politics this one seems to have stirred something up that I did not intend. If you think for one minute that I have “reverence” for the Federal Reserve well then you are either not paying attention or my writing style is confusing. My whole point is that the Fed makes monetary policy and that monetary policy has … Continue reading Trump Impeached! [w/ edit]
I don’t mind telling you that I tend to tune everybody out in favor of the market. That includes mainstream Wall Street types, perma-bulls, perma-bears, speed freaks & momos, doom & gloomers and heavily armed bearded men writing on laptops in little Unibomber shacks. It also includes the Mises Institute, which I have linked at this very website. I tune out smart people (oh, how … Continue reading Mises Goes Mainstream, Calls Bull
You can click this graphic for the detailed November Payrolls report from BLS. Here is where the heavy lifting came from. There is the usual onslaught of services jobs relative to productive jobs. But what’s this? Manufacturing has spiked despite the fading ISM data (including hiring)? Well, that was from the returnees of an auto worker strike so I guess one offsets the other. We’ll … Continue reading Payrolls +266k, the Details…