Stagflation is indicated by two economic conditions: Decelerating Q1 GDP Report and persistent inflationary effects Let's also realize that the economy is decelerating in its headline number despite all that…
Interview with Jordan Roy Byrne The interview took place a day before gold shot up to near our 2450 target, led by silver. The major themes still hold, but the…
On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown…
Because of course February Payrolls beat expectations! Good Ship Lollipop on course... February Payrolls checked in at +275,000 to handily beat expectations, while the unemployment rate ticked up a teeny.…
NFTRH 799's opening segment illustrating unsustainable debt leverage Below is an exercise that considers real economic/macro/market indicators and one writer's view of what is in play this election year. I…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #795 Summary omitted this week as NFTRH 795 goes conversational on a weekend when an unexpected commitment popped up. "No Landing" (until after the election?)…
January Payrolls boomed, services do the heavy lifting I was at a doctor's appointment when the drama unfolded. It was probably for the best, because I for one have been…
December payrolls rose by 216,000 vs. estimates of 180,000 As usual you can click the graphic for the full report. In the full report you will find a certain someone…
The seasonal party continues but, danger is ahead The strategy of how to navigate what is ahead has been generally covered in NFTRH and with post-FOMC clarity, it is being…
The anticipated "Goldilocks" disinflation continues and the media thinks it will last What do you think? Do you think Contrary Cramer will finally be right about something this time? Today…
November Payrolls rise a bit more than expected (+199k vs. +190k) Here is the report from BLS (click graphic). "Job gains occurred in healthcare and government." Why of course they…
As employment decelerates, the media continue to choose to see a Goldilocks "soft landing" scenario, and it's right in line with a seasonal "last chance power drive" Never mind that…
Inflation reads flat and core CPI hits 2 year low; because of course they did! One year ago we began projecting a coming bull rally that would be the product…
September payrolls +336,000 vs. estimate of 170,000 September payrolls knocked it out of the park. Meanwhile, stock futures drop, bond yields and USD spike and curiously, gold holds relatively firm.…