US manufacturing (ISM PMI) has dropped in sytematic, robotic fashion over the last 12 months From an index reading of 53% in June, 2022 to 47% today, the sector has…
May Payrolls report; not all it's cracked up to be On Friday we noted that the May Payrolls report was 'services' laden and late stage stuff. Early stage stuff like…
The May Payrolls report shows what else? Booming and laggard Services drives payrolls at +339,000 Killing an inflated economy is proving to be touchy (and sticky) business. As manufacturing continues…
The March ISM report on manufacturing is right on schedule to our macro view Manufacturing is not a laggard, like a lot of the inflation stuff and services-related employment still…
The Empire State Manufacturing survey is bad Here is the report (PDF) from the New York Fed. Let's just take a visual journey down the road to disinflation/deflation and economic…
January payrolls boomed at +517,000 You can click the graphic to get the details from BLS: I was quite taken aback by how strong the January Payrolls reading was. While…
Inflation signals and economy fading/decelerating as expected That which was built of inflation will deconstruct with inflation's fade. That's the rough plan, anyway. It's important to remember that short-term phases…
It occurs to me that I write a lot of words. It also occurs to me that important ideas can get lost in all those words. This little update wants…
December payrolls increased by 223,000 You can click this graphic for the full BLS report... You can click this fellow doing his job to see the MSM's take on it...…
NFTRH 738 Happy New Year? Financially speaking, if we can plan well enough before 2023 unfolds and then keep the analytical ship on coarse through the adjustments that are sure…
Philly Fed manufacturing and non-manufacturing data are decelerating Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December Current Philadelphia area manufacturing activity has drilled down toward recession levels, while optimistic survey respondents see…
In another surprise (not), November Payrolls increased more than expected It's a process, rolling an economy over. November Payrolls exceeded expectations and given the season and the nature of Payrolls…
David Rosenberg on Deflation From an NFTRH subscriber: "Gary, You might want to watch David Rosenberg’s presentation. You guys have a lot in common wrt your market outlook and deflation…
Year over year CPI inflation rate eases in October An easing in concerns about the effects of the Fed's 2020 creation of massive sums of funny munny. Frankly, I was…