CPI: The munny shot!

Year over year CPI inflation rate eases in October

An easing in concerns about the effects of the Fed’s 2020 creation of massive sums of funny munny.

Frankly, I was mentally prepared for yet another year over year CPI comp to instigate negative headlines and more angst because how, absent a crystal ball, do you definitively predict which month will be the trigger? But for October the CPI inflation rate eased and this is another feather in the cap of NFTRH’s Q4-Q1 plan.

Click image, get article…

cpi inflation rate for October

I’ve been noting for months now that the Fed is fighting the last war and now a laggard – the CPI inflation rate – is starting to roll over. On cue, baby.

Casino patrons are prepared to follow the algos, black boxes and various other machines into party mode for a day at least. But given other aspects of this particular seasonal situation it could go on for an inconveniently long time for actively and aggressively positioned bears.

2022 has been a pure downtrending cyclical bear market. But bear market rallies can be some of the strongest rallies. All those endorphins needing to be released and all. The problem for bulls will probably be a turn from celebration about inflation’s demise to despair when inflation and inflationary indicators drop below a certain point under pressure of a flagging economy, which had been built upon the quicksand of the Fed’s previous inflationary operations.

But for now, party on boyz…

The Fed puts wax on and it takes wax off. It’s not normal or good. But it is what it is. For now patrons having been hyper concerned about inflation will celebrate. Later? Probably not so much. But we’ll let the seasonal play out, update and evaluate going forward.

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This Post Has 6 Comments

  1. jon jonsen

    what about the metals?

    1. Gary

      What metals do you mean? Because there is a world of difference between industrial/cyclical and precious.

  2. jon jonsen

    but everything precious is rallying on lower inflation… gold as well

    1. Gary

      Exactly! Gold and especially the miners have proven beyond doubt that they are not about inflation in their best suit. They corrected for 2.5 years amid inflation and that was just and right. It was also contrary to the majority gold bug view. Gold is very valid for a disinflationary relief phase.

  3. jon jonsen

    gold $100+ in a few days…

    1. Gary

      And completely normal.

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