CPI came out and it was a humdinger! Okay, that hype aside, the play is for a top in inflation hysteria and while the signals have been waning for well over a month now, the public is treated to another big inflation headline. With respect to yesterday’s update and the add-on posted just after, it looks like today is a reversal day of some kind. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Contrary to today’s CPI…
Another CPI report, another big inflation headline All I can say (publicly) is that we are on track. I was actually concerned that today’s headline might be the opposite of the hysterical inflation headlines to date. You can click the image to get the article at CNBC if you’d like. Now, if market participants can just keep their contrarian spirits under wraps until FOMC and … Continue reading Epic (CPI) Inflation!!!!
Another hot CPI fails to suppress gold With FOMC on tap with an upcoming .5% rate hike, gold got hammered and bounced back with a vengeance on ‘CPI’ Friday. The Fed will raise the Funds Rate at least .5% next week. So says not me, but the wise guys whose job it is to correctly anticipate FOMC policy. Indeed, a full 20% of CME traders … Continue reading A pivotal juncture for gold, gold stocks
CPI came. CPI laid another big inflated egg. CPI left. Costs and wages are still rising but real wages declined again. That is another way of saying Stagflation. Stagflation is another way of saying inflation that starts to work against the economy, especially the consumerist economy of the US, if its citizens start pulling back on spending. Think about all those payrolls reports and all … Continue reading NFTRH+; post-CPI
The May CPI report hits the markets tomorrow No predictions, just a question. What do you suppose might happen if somehow CPI – backward looking indicator that it is – were to ease and/or come in below expectations? Markets are cracking left and right in anticipation of another steamer. I never did short anything (just increased cash), and decided not to do so into such … Continue reading CPI approaches
CPI will show inflation, but at what rate? [edit] You can view the CPI report here by clicking the graphic… This morning’s CPI release is much anticipated by your trusty blog writer and more widely and for different reasons, the mainstream media. Here is Fox news (which I can bare to look at every once in a while, albeit not seriously, now that they’ve rotated … Continue reading CPI on tap [w/ edit]
When gold could rise during inflation You know, I rag on inflationist gold bugs a lot. And it’s with good reason. They are usually wrong. It’s not as simple as “inflation is going to eat away at your purchasing power, buy gold!” It’s when inflation is starting to eat you up and is no longer viewed as ‘good’, the way it was on balance coming … Continue reading Gold and inflation
CPI inflation ramps up to no one’s surprise Here is the headline from the media (click for the article)… Here are the nuts and bolts from BLS (click for the report)… And here is a graphic… …and another, showing the primary culprit. And there you have it. We have inflationary effects compliments of the 2020 Federal Reserve panic. It’s the tax to be paid now … Continue reading In other news, CPI ramps
Gold as correlated with the CPI/TNX ratio has implied downside Earlier I saw some stuff about a gold breakout and thought about how they never seem to learn. They either never learn or they never want followers to learn (too much). It’s like those scary social commentary stories; keep the masses dumb, stupid and asleep. But that is just me, being judgemental and unlikable (by … Continue reading Risk implied for gold by this picture
CPI comes in cooler, market cheers… So CPI is cool enough to settle the nerves of Fed-obsessed casino patrons and machines alike. Consumer prices post smaller than expected increase in August “Federal Reserve officials have been watching inflation closely but have largely said they believe this year’s burst will be temporary and due to factors that will soon fade. They cite supply chain bottlenecks, shortages … Continue reading CPI: Fed-obsessed Kabuki Dance cools
Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold) Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not … Continue reading An Inflationary Slingshot
All according to plan, I might add. Well, the “sending markets tumbling” part is its own animal. But as far as inflation fears and Treasury bond yields go, we’re on plan. Click the graphic for the Bloomberg article. So now it gets interesting. We have put forward very clear targets of 2.9% on the 10yr and 3.3% on the 30yr. Here is how they are … Continue reading Post-CPI, “Inflation on the Rise”
I was looking through some old monthly charts and came across one I had created a couple years ago to illustrate the confidence that the market had in the Great and Powerful Federal Reserve not to inflate away peoples’ value. It was a chart of the CPI in ratio to the 2 year Treasury yield, which was in an uptrend from 2013. Of course the … Continue reading CPI Adjusted by Gold, SPX and the 2 Year Yield
By way of @TheStalwart (which was forwarded by a subscriber who has dug up so many quality reference points): Holy crap. Had no idea the Billion Prices Project is now on FRED A startling look at prices. The CPI burrows south (for now) while the PriceStats Inflation series spikes. <insert here the usual stuff about how these are measures of inflation’s effects, not inflation itself. … Continue reading Prices are an Issue
