CPI will show inflation, but at what rate?  You can view the CPI report here by clicking the graphic… This morning’s CPI release is much anticipated by your trusty blog writer and more widely and for different reasons, the mainstream media. Here is Fox news (which I can bare to look at every once in a while, albeit not seriously, now that they’ve rotated … Continue reading CPI on tap [w/ edit]
When gold could rise during inflation You know, I rag on inflationist gold bugs a lot. And it’s with good reason. They are usually wrong. It’s not as simple as “inflation is going to eat away at your purchasing power, buy gold!” It’s when inflation is starting to eat you up and is no longer viewed as ‘good’, the way it was on balance coming … Continue reading Gold and inflation
CPI inflation ramps up to no one’s surprise Here is the headline from the media (click for the article)… Here are the nuts and bolts from BLS (click for the report)… And here is a graphic… …and another, showing the primary culprit. And there you have it. We have inflationary effects compliments of the 2020 Federal Reserve panic. It’s the tax to be paid now … Continue reading In other news, CPI ramps
Gold as correlated with the CPI/TNX ratio has implied downside Earlier I saw some stuff about a gold breakout and thought about how they never seem to learn. They either never learn or they never want followers to learn (too much). It’s like those scary social commentary stories; keep the masses dumb, stupid and asleep. But that is just me, being judgemental and unlikable (by … Continue reading Risk implied for gold by this picture
CPI comes in cooler, market cheers… So CPI is cool enough to settle the nerves of Fed-obsessed casino patrons and machines alike. Consumer prices post smaller than expected increase in August “Federal Reserve officials have been watching inflation closely but have largely said they believe this year’s burst will be temporary and due to factors that will soon fade. They cite supply chain bottlenecks, shortages … Continue reading CPI: Fed-obsessed Kabuki Dance cools
Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold) Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not … Continue reading An Inflationary Slingshot
All according to plan, I might add. Well, the “sending markets tumbling” part is its own animal. But as far as inflation fears and Treasury bond yields go, we’re on plan. Click the graphic for the Bloomberg article. So now it gets interesting. We have put forward very clear targets of 2.9% on the 10yr and 3.3% on the 30yr. Here is how they are … Continue reading Post-CPI, “Inflation on the Rise”
I was looking through some old monthly charts and came across one I had created a couple years ago to illustrate the confidence that the market had in the Great and Powerful Federal Reserve not to inflate away peoples’ value. It was a chart of the CPI in ratio to the 2 year Treasury yield, which was in an uptrend from 2013. Of course the … Continue reading CPI Adjusted by Gold, SPX and the 2 Year Yield
By way of @TheStalwart (which was forwarded by a subscriber who has dug up so many quality reference points): Holy crap. Had no idea the Billion Prices Project is now on FRED A startling look at prices. The CPI burrows south (for now) while the PriceStats Inflation series spikes. <insert here the usual stuff about how these are measures of inflation’s effects, not inflation itself. … Continue reading Prices are an Issue
 Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads… [edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318 [edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the dot.com/tech bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, … Continue reading Stocks; Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold
[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301’s opening segment. Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article) feel free to just skip the article. You will not get what you are looking for. The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]
[edit 2] Based on reader feedback from another site, it appears I do not understand inflation, nor that gold’s purchasing power is superior to that of the USD over the long term. What I take from this is that if you post anything positive (like USD’s ‘price’ potential) about the buck and/or negative (like gold’s price vulnerabilities) about gold certain handbook carrying people in the gold ‘community’ are going to lash out first, and read/consider second. In other words SSDD.
Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).
This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.