BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

August Payrolls disappoints at 235,000; one sector would benefit So I guess that the Citi Economic Surprise Index per yesterday’s post is more concerning still, as analysts expecting +720,000 new jobs get whacked upside the head again. A click of the headline yields the report from BLS… Here is the visual on who is and is not gaining employment. WTF happened to Leisure and Hospitality, … Continue reading BLS: Jobs +235k, way below expectations

Jobs, hot off the press… +943k

July payrolls from BLS: +943k Click image, get report… The number is a little more than what the media says the markets expected, but all in all not a surprise. Here is the graphical breakdown of monthly changes. Who is surprised that the Good Ship Lollipop is massively leveraged to its behemoth Services industries. Specifically, Leisure & Hospitality services. Also, who is surprised that government … Continue reading Jobs, hot off the press… +943k

Goldilocks still…

Goldilocks backdrop persists We expected a summer cool down in the inflation trades. We expected that to be reflected in a temporary Goldilocks environment (not too hot, not too cold where inflation expectations are concerned). As part of this rotation Tech and Growth would retake leadership, at least temporarily. Sure enough, the yield Continuum pulled back, value/growth broke down and Tech has re-taken the lead. … Continue reading Goldilocks still…

NFTRH 663, Out Now

NFTRH 663 is loaded with valuable information for this very moment in time because we are at a macro decision point and only work done from the top down will suffice right now. If you don’t get the macro right you’re not going to get many investments within said macro right. Hence, only forthright work will do. I know that because this work is helping … Continue reading NFTRH 663, Out Now

Gold’s inflation utility

Gold is okay, but not yet unique There are times when gold is an okay inflation hedge, while under-performing the likes of industrial metals, oil/energy, materials, etc. During those times, if you’re doggedly precious metals focused you should consider silver, which, as a hybrid precious metal/industrial commodity, has more pro-cyclical inflation utility than gold. But as I have argued for much of the last year, … Continue reading Gold’s inflation utility

May Payrolls, the Good Ship Lollipop & USD

USD drops as a tepid May Payrolls report eases inflation fears further May payrolls expanded, but not as much as anticipated. Click graphic, get report from BLS. Here’s the graphical view of the current unemployment rate. Typical of the US, which compared to many global areas does not like to get its hands dirty (with things like mining, manufacturing and you know, other non-essentials <<< … Continue reading May Payrolls, the Good Ship Lollipop & USD

Inflation Cools (for now), Stag Awaits

To maintain the inflation, a cooling of inflation was needed That is one of those Alice in Wonderland-like statements, like the one I’ve got tattooed on my left forearm: “Contrary-wise, what is it wouldn’t be and what it wouldn’t be it would, you see?” To maintain inflationary policy, as per various talking Fed (egg) heads, the hysterical run up in inflationary expectations and fears had … Continue reading Inflation Cools (for now), Stag Awaits

Semi Chip Making Capacity Initiative

Calls for funding US chip production The market will show me to be wrong if the likes of AMAT and LRCX break down. I hold both of them because while they are part of the supply-constrained Semiconductor sector, they are not chip makers. They are chip making capacity providers. The equipment used manufacture Semiconductors. Here is a report that showed up on my Fidelity screen … Continue reading Semi Chip Making Capacity Initiative

tyx

Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back

All in the service to playing a game of ‘Hide the [inflationary] Cheese’… April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates Here’s the release from BLS, which you can get by clicking the headline. I had felt that the underside of the 2.5% – 2.8% caution zone on the Continuum would bring some kind of halt to yields … Continue reading Jobs +266K, Yields Pull Back

An Inflationary Slingshot

Cost-push inflation could break out (and a note on gold) Before beginning the post a little context is in order. We (NFTRH) anticipated the current pause in long-term Treasury yields (one indicator of inflation) because pro-inflation sentiment became over-done in March and was due for a cool down; so said a contrarian view. This post discussing the likelihood of more inflation to come is not … Continue reading An Inflationary Slingshot

Asia Rising, US the Land of the Setting Sun?

US now finds itself on outside of two massive Asia-Pacific blocs From Nikkei Asia: Five RCEP takeaways: Asia cements grip as free trade torchbearer In my opinion at exactly the wrong time Trump’s America has turned inward, gone protectionist and has introduced regressive policies that will see it lose momentum in many areas. Now, I don’t dispute the great technology infrastructure in the US and … Continue reading Asia Rising, US the Land of the Setting Sun?

It’s Not Just the U.S. Pulling Back From the Global Economy

China’s Politburo is not sitting idly by while Trump pushes them around. From the Nikkei Asian Review… Why China’s ‘dual circulation’ plan is bad news for everyone else Rebalancing in 2008 also relied on raising the contribution of domestic demand in China’s growth. It was coupled with the idea that driven by faster growth in domestic consumption, China’s long-standing current account surplus would give way … Continue reading It’s Not Just the U.S. Pulling Back From the Global Economy

Surprise!

In Friday’s post about the Stock/Economy Pumper-in-Chief we also noted regarding economic ‘experts’ AKA economists: Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by economic activity). Here’s the … Continue reading Surprise!

Not Only Was He Tweet-Pumping the Stock Market the Other Day…

…but today he’s vigorously pumping the Jobs number. His Twitter is littered with the stuff. What a spam artist. Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by … Continue reading Not Only Was He Tweet-Pumping the Stock Market the Other Day…