The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is hinting to steepen A hint sure is not a trend change. But a hint is a hint that is still in play. If the spread takes out the September high it would be time to pay attention to the potential for a trend change. Easy now; the word ‘potential’ is an important one. The question now is whether the next … Continue reading 10-2yr Yield Curve: a hint
A snapshot of the 10-2yr yield curve this morning as long-term rates appear to be blowing off to the upside and short-term rates drop. In other words, bonds are getting hammered on the long end and bought on the short end. As the 30yr yield smashes through our target in-month* it appears to be in unruly, impetuous blow off mode. * It is important to … Continue reading NFTRH+; Yield Curve
As per one of my favorite ‘not taking the analysis too seriously’ market memes… …we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas as the US exports inflation to the rest of the world with the delivery vehicle being the chronically strong US dollar. The Fed is in control. All eyes on the great monetary authority which shall … Continue reading Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]
The 10yr-2yr yield spread has taken out its previous short-term high Thus, it’s certainly a candidate to begin the steepener that seems only a matter of (diminishing) time. Notice how it took out the previous high and also the July high. Here’s the link at CNBC where you can check the status any time you’d like (assuming you’ve got a little nerd in you). The … Continue reading Yield Curve steepener in play?
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve continues to posture for steepening The recent secondary inversion (initial inversion was August, 2019) continues to look like it has birthed a bouncing baby steepener. The question, however, is whether a new steepening would be inflationary or deflationary. Today is inflationary signaling with nominal yields up. That’s a microcosm driven by geopolitical stuff. I am not going to bet heavily one … Continue reading Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture
10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve is doing what it did when it led the inflationary hysteria of today. It is steepening. But the trick is to realize that a yield curve can steepen under either inflationary or deflationary pressure. At … Continue reading The new non-inflationary curve steepener
Yield curve steepening, but there’s more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary. This new one well, my bet is the opposite. So to repeat, everyone is on one side of the macro boat and a post-inversion steepener usually comes with an economic bust. This market is rapidly … Continue reading New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve
Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It is going to be killed over weeks and months of grinding up and down, flitting brain cells trying to quantify and make sense of daily happenings while the picture churns so slowly as to try … Continue reading New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)
Yield Curve continues to steepen after the recent inversion I do believe that we have ourselves a Yield Curve steepener on our hands. Here is the new steepener in the context of the unfinished business I think the curve had back in 2020 before Corona virus hysteria hit like a tidal wave. That first 2020 steepening impulse was deflationary. The long slog upward into 2021 … Continue reading Get ready for the Yield Curve Steepener
The trend remains down in the 10-2yr yield curve, but I’d say a 92% jump from inversion in the steepening direction is notable and demanding of our attention going forward. I took a look at this after seeing that my short-term Treasury bond fund (1-3yr), SHY was positive while long-term yields were up again with long-term bond fund TLT negative. The important takeaway is that … Continue reading NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator
Yield Curve inverts deeper than August, 2019 Like the larger media this tiny little spec within the media reports the news to you. The 10yr-2yr yield curve has inverted (ref. Yield Curve inversion upcoming). Now, what does it mean? Well the first thing it usually means is not to panic (especially now that High Yield credit spreads are easing), but do tune out the media … Continue reading Yield Curve inverts; gold awaits
Only a few ticks away from an inverted Yield Curve With the free bond market driving up 2 year yields while the Fed holds out from going hawkish (hawk talk is cheap, actions are not) it is a confusing backdrop because… …inflation hype is everywhere, a curve flattener is not usually consistent with a big inflationary backdrop, and with respect to commodities and inflation… But … Continue reading Yield Curve inversion upcoming
Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields As long-term yields rise to tick the 2.5% to 2.7% target zone on the 30yr, the Bank sector seems to have other ideas. Like maybe yields are not going to keep rising. Like maybe there is a reason why the Fed is so hesitant to make like a hawk. Nominal KBE is lame and its ratio to the broad … Continue reading The Pigs are not leading yields
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
