Tag: yield curve

yield curve
Inflation & Deflation, Market Indicators

Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture

The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve continues to posture for steepening The recent secondary inversion (initial inversion was August, 2019) continues to look like it has birthed a bouncing baby steepener. The question, however, is whether a new steepening would be inflationary or deflationary. Today is inflationary signaling with nominal yields up. That’s a microcosm driven by geopolitical stuff. I am not going to bet heavily one … Continue reading Yields up, 10yr-2yr Yield Curve still in steepening posture

Gary2 Comments
Bonds, Market Indicators

The new non-inflationary curve steepener

10-2yr Yield Curve steepening, but not due to inflation While the headlines continue to blare inflation 24/7, an indicator of the 2020-2021 inflation diverges the hysteria. Sure, the yield curve is doing what it did when it led the inflationary hysteria of today. It is steepening. But the trick is to realize that a yield curve can steepen under either inflationary or deflationary pressure. At … Continue reading The new non-inflationary curve steepener

Gary
Bonds, Interest Rates, Market Indicators

New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Yield curve steepening, but there’s more to the story The yield curve can steepen under inflationary pressure (e.g. 2020) or deflationary pressure (e.g. 2008). The most recent steepener was inflationary. This new one well, my bet is the opposite. So to repeat, everyone is on one side of the macro boat and a post-inversion steepener usually comes with an economic bust. This market is rapidly … Continue reading New trend being set on the 10-2yr Yield Curve

Gary2 Comments
Inflation & Deflation, Interest Rates

New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Yield curve steepens again, under inflationary pressure Look, if we are going to kill the hysteria of the day it is not going to be killed in a day. It is going to be killed over weeks and months of grinding up and down, flitting brain cells trying to quantify and make sense of daily happenings while the picture churns so slowly as to try … Continue reading New Curve steepener still inflationary (duh)

Gary
yield curve
Market Indicators

Get ready for the Yield Curve Steepener

Yield Curve continues to steepen after the recent inversion I do believe that we have ourselves a Yield Curve steepener on our hands. Here is the new steepener in the context of the unfinished business I think the curve had back in 2020 before Corona virus hysteria hit like a tidal wave. That first 2020 steepening impulse was deflationary. The long slog upward into 2021 … Continue reading Get ready for the Yield Curve Steepener

Gary4 Comments
NFTRH Interim Updates, NFTRH+

NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator

The trend remains down in the 10-2yr yield curve, but I’d say a 92% jump from inversion in the steepening direction is notable and demanding of our attention going forward. I took a look at this after seeing that my short-term Treasury bond fund (1-3yr), SHY was positive while long-term yields were up again with long-term bond fund TLT negative. The important takeaway is that … Continue reading NFTRH+; a big move in this key macro indicator

Gary8 Comments
Inflation & Deflation

Yield Curve inverts; gold awaits

Yield Curve inverts deeper than August, 2019 Like the larger media this tiny little spec within the media reports the news to you. The 10yr-2yr yield curve has inverted (ref. Yield Curve inversion upcoming). Now, what does it mean? Well the first thing it usually means is not to panic (especially now that High Yield credit spreads are easing), but do tune out the media … Continue reading Yield Curve inverts; gold awaits

Gary
indicators
Bonds, Market Indicators

Yield Curve inversion upcoming

Only a few ticks away from an inverted Yield Curve With the free bond market driving up 2 year yields while the Fed holds out from going hawkish (hawk talk is cheap, actions are not) it is a confusing backdrop because… …inflation hype is everywhere, a curve flattener is not usually consistent with a big inflationary backdrop, and with respect to commodities and inflation… But … Continue reading Yield Curve inversion upcoming

Gary
Federal Reserve, Inflation & Deflation, Notable Posts

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

Gary
indicators
Inflation & Deflation, Market Indicators

A look at inflationary dynamics through the lens of TSX-V/TSX

The ratio of two Canadian markets indicates cooling inflation One of the tools we use in NFTRH is the ratio of Canada’s speculative cow pastures (i.e. risky, often resources-oriented stocks) vs. Canada’s real stock market, the TSX. The TSX-V/TSX ratio has been pulling back since topping last February. I do not cheer lead for one outcome or the other. My only job is to be … Continue reading A look at inflationary dynamics through the lens of TSX-V/TSX

Gary
Inflation & Deflation, Market Indicators

Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend

The yield curve is flattening I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo). Well, the curve is flattening. Which means one of three things. … Continue reading Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend

Gary