As stated for months/years now, the macro has swung big picture inflationary by the signaling in long-term bond yields. However, functionally we also have to deal with shorter-term, interim signals.…
A whiff of inflation from the Treasury market We are still in the realm of a whiff (hint, initial indication, a glint in inflation's eye) of a coming inflationary phase,…
The 10yr/2yr yield curve is taking on a steepening bias Just a little report from beneath the market's surface. If you're like me and you want to know the macro…
Excerpted from the November 2nd edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 887): As noted last week, I am hearing all too much talk about a market crash to…
Before beginning, I'd like to remind subscribers - especially newer subscribers - that we successfully gauged the coming of the big phase of the precious metals and specialty or critical…
The 10yr2yr yield curve steepening trend is well intact, indicating an oncoming economic bust not too far out on the horizon It's not the only indicator to the macro, but…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve indicates that the economic bust is on schedule No way did I know that Trump was going to shove it into gear so actively like this.…
The media are muck raking again, as the Fed's favorite "recession indicator" flashes (bullshit, MSM) This is not to say that I don't agree that a recession is coming. I…
Musk and the bond market are in a convenient alignment, but the bond market situation has been in progress since 2023 Our (NFTRH) view has been for falling inflation signals…
Gold Ratios are indicating our projected countercycle is slowly coming to be and that is to the benefit of the gold mining industry Gold ratios such as those to Oil/Energy…
Jerome Powell: "I think it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession" In response to a media member, who at Wednesday's post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we've…
As nominal yields resume rising, the signal is an inflationary yield curve steepener just lately, but not necessarily going forward As for the dominant theme of the yield curve steepener…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve remains on its new steepener The macro is grinding along, subject to daily noise that drives nominal yields up or down (today's noise du jour is…
Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us…